U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Joining us now, on a very different front, turning to the world of foreign policy, is Andrew Scobell. He is the USIP's China distinguished fellow. He joins us now. Welcome, Andrew. How are you?

Andrew Scobell: Good morning, Laura. I'm good. Thank you.

Laura Coates: Good. I'm glad to have you on the program. Bring us up to speed on what is happening between China and the Philippines. They've got a recent deal, but there are some disagreements over it. What's the deal and what's happening?

Andrew Scobell: That is the question. What is the deal? It's a little bit of, a quick little bit of background, I think there's a place called the Second Thomas Shoal. It's in the middle of nowhere, but it's actually, more precisely, it's about 100 miles west of the Philippine island of Palawan in the middle of the South China Sea. And it's claimed by both China and the Philippines. Twenty-five years ago, the Philippines ran aground on a reef, a old World War II-era landing ship. And it's been parked there ever since with a crew of Filipino marines on board. The challenge has been to supply those marines with food and water and other things that they need. And in recent years, China has sought to prevent the Philippines from supplying those marines on that rusting hulk at Second Thomas Shoal. So it's gotten pretty intense.

The confrontations, including over the last few months, with injuries, with ship rammings and what this agreement did, apparently, [inaudible] is to have both sides allow the Filipinos to resupply their marines and have the Chinese not interfere. The weird thing is, the agreement has not been made public, so nobody really knows what's in the agreement. The Chinese say one thing, the Filipinos say another. But ... so it is a really strange situation. The added "but" or the asterisk is, this past weekend, the Philippines resupplied their marines without incident. So, the agreement is working. 

Laura Coates: So, well is the thought if they don't supply their marines, the thought that somehow they will vacate the area and then therefore they won't have an ownership in stake any longer? Is that the thought here?

Andrew Scobell: Correct. Correct. And we know that China has been trying to do that. That's the goal. So this is, you know, of course why are the Chinese doing this? Well, why did they come to this agreement? Well, both sides, the Filipinos and the Chinese, nobody wants to see it escalate to war. And there's been a real, it's probably been the tensest, one of the tensest flashpoints in the western Pacific. So neither side wants this to escalate. The added wrinkle is that the Philippines is a U.S. treaty ally. And the U.S. has made very clear that if this escalates, that would activate the treaty, close of the treaty, and the U.S. would come in on the side of the Philippines. So these are ...  It's a rusting hulk in the middle of nowhere, but the stakes are pretty high.

Laura Coates: Why do they want that? Why does either side want this territory?

Andrew Scobell: Great question. It's hard to give a straightforward answer. But rights over. You know, since it's a shoal, it's not an island. And so it doesn't ... there's no territorial waters associated with it, but it is within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone and there are believed to be minerals in this area, perhaps hydrocarbons and certainly fish. And so this territory and this dispute takes on greater implications than just this little reef that seems inconsequential.

Laura Coates: Is there either side that believes that they have had a win with this negotiation outwardly? Or is it sort of a wash for both just to maintain the status quo?

Andrew Scobell: Yeah, that's a great question. I think for both sides, the ambiguity, the fact that it hasn't, the text of the agreement hasn't been released, the fact that there was a resupply that happened without incident allows both sides to claim victory. You know, the Filipinos are very happy with how it went. The Chinese claim that they supervised the whole resupply, which is a stretch. But it's a fascinating and truth is stranger than fiction. You can't make this stuff up. And another question of why, what is the long game for the Chinese? I think it's that they're trying to buy time to assess their next steps. And you mentioned just before this interview, you mentioned the U.S. presidential election, one can't help but speculate that the Chinese are waiting to see the outcome of the U.S. election before they decide their next move.

Laura Coates: So, does the United States, the election, how does it impact it? Is it the idea of what the policy is to deter Chinese aggression the area, or they'll have a more laissez faire approach? What would be the potential impact of the presidential election here in the United States on what's going on there?

Andrew Scobell: Another good question. I think that the Chinese assume, rightly or wrongly, that if Trump wins the election, there may be a change, that there may be more wiggle room to advance China's interests. Whether that's true or not, is another matter. But I think there's ... that the Chinese are paying very close attention to U.S. politics, and they want to maintain good relations or relatively good relations with the U.S. So I think that it's a "wait-and-see" approach and disagreement, which buys China some time.

Laura Coates: The United States seems to not, I mean, the idea of having the South China Sea, Chinese territorial waters completely, that poses some issues globally with trade, does it not?

Andrew Scobell: Yes, the South China Sea is one of the busiest waterways in the world. So, you know, China insists that it's not, doesn't wish to interfere with, you know, commercial shipping lanes of the world. What China has been most vocal about is they don't like the U.S. and other countries, but especially the U.S. Navy, in particular, transiting the South China Sea. And the Chinese insist that they should have the right to be notified in advance of any U.S. Naval activity. And that runs counter to U.S. and most countries' understandings of international law, whereas these waters are, should be, you know, there's freedom of navigation.

Laura Coates: Are there other countries that are as interested in this issue, I mean, as the United States is for global trade? Obviously China has extensive influence across the world. Are there other nations that the United States is working with to follow?

Andrew Scobell: Definitely, and that list is extensive. But certainly, Japan, Australia, the countries, many countries in Southeast Asia and beyond. So, but the U.S. tends to be out front on this. But other countries certainly share U.S. interests and concerns.

Laura Coates: When you're looking at the relationship between the United States and the Philippines in particular, what is our relationship like?

Andrew Scobell: I think it's a very positive one right now with President Marcos. I think, and in part, in large part, because the Philippines is very upset with China and what they view as very much unfriendly strong-arm tactics, which have pushed the Philippines closer to the United States. So, U.S.-Philippine relations are very good. In that sense, and it's tongue-in-cheek, you have China to thank for that.

Laura Coates: Andrew Scobell, this is very informative. Thank you so much for joining us.

Andrew Scobell: You're welcome.