KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Since Sudan’s civil war erupted 15 months ago, civilians have disproportionately borne the brunt of the fighting. The African Union recently referred to the crisis in Sudan as an “unprecedented catastrophic humanitarian situation,” marked by the world’s largest displacement and hunger crises and significant civilian casualties.
Accusations of war crimes have been leveled against both warring parties, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo. Additionally, the United States and international human rights organizations have accused the RSF and allied militias of committing crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing. Earlier this year, the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, launched a war crimes investigation on both the SAF and RSF.
The United Nations Security Council adopted a cease-fire resolution calling on all parties to the conflict to reach a sustainable resolution a few months later. Five months after that resolution passed, hostilities continue despite international calls to halt the fighting and stop targeted attacks on civilians.
Civilians continue to face wanton cruelty including indiscriminate attacks, widespread rape and conflict-related sexual violence, forced displacement and wholesale destruction of civilian infrastructure. This violence is unfolding against a backdrop of food insecurity affecting 26.6 million people, worsening protection concerns and increasing mortality risks. The situation is particularly severe in El Fasher, North Darfur’s capital, where all essential services have been disrupted or halted, resulting in a lack of access to necessities, including food, water and medical care.
This violence is unfolding against a backdrop of food insecurity affecting 26.6 million people, worsening protection concerns and increasing mortality risks.
Once considered a safe haven for civilians, El Fasher is now the epicenter of the conflict between the SAF and the RSF. Ongoing bombing and shelling in densely populated areas is now endangering the lives of nearly 800,000 civilians. Between April and June 2024 alone, an estimated 143,000 people were displaced from El Fasher due to military clashes. In addition to this displacement crisis, El Fasher is facing acute food insecurity, as is the case throughout Sudan. Currently, Sudan has the highest number of people facing “emergency” levels of acute food insecurity in the world with 42 percent of the population experiencing severe hunger.
U.N. agencies estimate that 15,000 have been killed since April 2023, but that is generally considered a conservative estimate. In June, the Sudan Doctors Union said that 40,000 had been killed and U.S. Special Envoy Tom Perriello suggested the numbers may be as high as 150,000. According to U.N. Refugee Agency figures from April, 8.6 million people have been displaced since the civil war started, with 6.5 internally displaced person (IDPs) and 2 million people leaving the country, which could contribute to destabilizing the fragile East Africa region. Along with those displaced prior to the civil war, there are now 11 million Sudanese displaced across the country, the largest IDP population in the world. These numbers reflect a grim reality for the people of Sudan, where civilians are often caught in the crossfire.
Despite calls from the U.N. Security Council for immediate action to protect civilians and ensure humanitarian access, the international community's response has thus far been insufficient. The U.N. Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan has urged the warring parties to commit to an immediate cease-fire, end attacks on civilians and ensure unimpeded access to humanitarian assistance — all of which have gone unheeded.
The closure earlier this year of the U.N. Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) has exacerbated protection challenges, leaving Sudan without a U.N. peacekeeping presence for the first time in nearly two decades and the civilian population without an important stopgap. UNITAMS’ closure presents a significant void in the efforts to safeguard the lives and rights of civilians in the country.
Both the United Nations and the African Union have made political attempts to address the worsening situation for civilians. U.N. Security Council Resolution 2736 underscores the urgent need to improve humanitarian access and calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Meanwhile, the African Union has been engaged in facilitating negotiations between the RSF, SAF leadership, and international stakeholders to achieve a cease-fire or, if that proves unattainable, to secure humanitarian access within active combat and conflict zones. Saudi Arabia and the United States have also been active in mediating talks between the warring parties as well, with limited success as they were able to secure limited cease-fires that allowed for the passage of humanitarian aid to civilian populations.
However, these efforts have not had the intended effect on the warring parties or their international backers, which were mentioned but unnamed in the African Union communique on the situation in Sudan. The SAF is currently supported politically or materially by Egypt, Iran and Ukraine, which has sent special forces to counter Russian mercenary support. Meanwhile, the RSF is allegedly supported by the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary outfit, and the UAE, which has reportedly sent arms to support Hemedti in an effort to “roll back Islamist influence” in Sudan as a part of the Emirates’ larger strategy in the region. Continued external interference in Sudan is likely to prolong the war.
While the war rages on, Sudanese civilians at risk of direct harm from the fighting are now being faced with the compounding deadly threats of extreme hunger and forced displacement. Meanwhile, deliberate obstructionism, aid diversion and looting of aid convoys are preventing life-saving supplies from reaching those in need.
Sudanese civilians at risk of direct harm from the fighting are now being faced with the compounding deadly threats of extreme hunger and forced displacement.
The use of starvation as a weapon of war and denying humanitarian access are violations of international humanitarian law, prohibited by U.N. Security Resolution 2417. Yet this is the new reality of urban warfare in Sudan. The disruption of food supplies and obstruction of humanitarian aid have exacerbated already severe humanitarian crises. Civilian populations have faced multiple rounds of forced displacement and cannot rely on safe zones since El Fasher has been directly targeted.
This month, civilians in Sennar, a city in southeast Sudan, are at risk of imminent famine due to a RSF siege that has blocked key supply routes and cut off food and fuel. Violence around Sinja, which was reportedly captured by RSF on June 29, has forced civilians to flee, many of whom were displaced for the second or third time. The U.N. World Food Program estimates that around 1,000 people flee to South Sudan every day, exacerbating the displacement pressures in the region. These situations highlight the urgent need for improved civilian protection measures and unhindered humanitarian access into Sudan’s conflict zones. The international community must act swiftly to address these crises and ensure the safety and well-being of affected populations.
The international community must significantly increase humanitarian aid to Sudan and ensure unimpeded access for aid organizations. This includes addressing deliberate obstructionism, aid diversion and looting of aid convoys. Life-saving supplies must reach those in need, especially in areas facing severe food insecurity and risk of famine. Until hostilities end, limited timeframe cease-fires, like those facilitated by Saudi Arabia and the United States, can help coordinate pathways for humanitarian actors.
Diplomatic efforts must be intensified to pressure the warring parties to agree to an immediate cease-fire and engage in peace negotiations. The international community should use all available diplomatic channels to facilitate negotiations, emphasizing the urgent need to end hostilities and allow humanitarian aid to reach affected civilian populations. External interference from both state and non-state actors should be addressed in all calls for cease-fires, as this interference allows the warring parties to carry out continued operations and prolongs this devastating war.
Given the destabilizing effect of the ongoing war on East Africa, neighboring countries and regional economic organizations should be supported in their efforts to manage the influx of refugees and displaced persons. The African Union and other regional bodies should re-engage and attempt to bring the SAF and RSF to the negotiation tables and play a more active role in mediating the conflict and fostering regional cooperation to address the humanitarian crisis.
Ilhan Dahir is a program officer for USIP's Governance, Justice and Security program.