U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Brian Ross: So, we're getting joined now by Don Jensen from the United States Institute of Peace to talk about that, and Don thanks for joining us.

Donald Jensen: Thank you for having me.

Brian Ross: So what do you make of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia?

Donald Jensen: Yeah, I think, like everybody else around the world, I'm shocked, I'm surprised. And as someone who believes Ukraine has the right to defend itself, I'm very pleased.

Brian Ross: What's their goal? You think?

Donald Jensen: Well, their goal is very flexible. Number one, they can keep pushing in fact, all the way to the reactor, all the way to Kursk. They can stop here. They can pull back a little bit. They can go back into Ukrainian borders. I think they're adapting to the situation and, depending on the Russian reaction, adjusting their strategy and tactics accordingly. And as you saw, I have seen, the Russians are in a panic. I think even the Kremlin was shocked. And what may ultimately happen is that the Russians could draw troops away from Donbas, where fighting has been very severe and bloody, and put them up there. And they started to do that already. So, this has stretched out at a minimum, Russia's defenses. And the attacks already have slowed down a bit, according to Ukrainian sources in Donbas and elsewhere. So, a major, major blow to the Russian war effort, above all, psychologically. Putin has been shown to be [inaudible], unprepared, and Putin, who's supposed to be defending the Russian people, apparently, he can't even do that.

Brian Ross: And that's a blow to him and his status there. He was always supposed to be able to protect citizens and push into Ukraine. Why do you think it caught them off guard, aren't they pretty good on their intelligence of what's happening inside Ukraine?

Donald Jensen: Well, there are many, many versions of what's happened, but I think it's a combination of things. One of which is, they had the intelligence according to Russian sources, and the head of the General Staff,Gerasimov, ignored it, or didn't tell Putin, or minimized it. So, they went on as they had before, and as you saw last night, Gerasimov was replaced as the guy in charge of organizing the response to the Ukrainian incursion. Putin, put one of his cronies, Bortnikov, in charge of the response. And that's a major slap at Gerasimov and the Russian military. Second, of course, is that we've seen yet again that the Russian regime is very brittle. We saw it last year in June, with Prigozhin moving around the southern part of the country. And third, Russia's command and control is very rigid, hierarchical, they're not very flexible. And Ukrainians who not only read the Russians well, they're trained by NATO and the West. They know how to play this game, and there are still considerable risks to Ukraine, but they played it well so far, and you have to see how developments proceed. But in many ways, the psychological blow to Putin is the biggest effect so far.

Brian Ross: And to what extent is the new U.S. weapon shipments aiding this?

Donald Jensen: Oh, there's two different aspects to that. Number one, HIMARS and other long-range artillery and weapons allows Ukraine to hit deeper into Russia. And second, the White House removed restrictions on the use of that equipment inside Russia if the Ukrainians are attacking troops that are in turn attacking Ukraine, and that's exactly what the Ukrainians are doing. The place where they went across the border, east of Sumy, which is northeast of Kyiv, that is where Russians have taken things for granted. They move troops around on their side. They move troops to Donbas, back and forth, attacking Ukraine, attacking Ukrainian civilian targets. And the Ukrainians have for months said, let us hit back. The White House is now letting them hit back with U.S. weapons. And we've seen that — you see the results. The Russians, in many places, at least for now, are running away, surrendering, and the civilians are in panic: 75, [to] 80 thousand civilians have run away from the area, which is open country, good for armored operations. And so far, Ukraine has the initiative. But if I might add a caution, this also stretches Ukraine thin in Donbas, where they were already thin in their defense — outmanned by the Russians. So, Ukraine has to be very careful not to make a mistake, not to go too far, but realize ultimately, this is for the defense of Ukraine. So, we have to see. And they have several options ahead of them in the next day or two to see what they're going to do.

Brian Ross: Quite a gamble on their part, though, isn't it? Yeah.

Donald Jensen: It is. In general, you can fight a defense outmanned two or three to one, and that's what they've been doing, especially in this heavily industrialized, heavily populous Donbas, at least populous before the war. And so they have to not make major mistakes. But the Russians, I would say, carelessly, just have these massive, meat-grinder assaults, foreign prisoners, draftees, poorly trained conscripts, almost still students. They constantly come and come and come. And the Ukrainians have been saying, 'My God, this never stops.' And so, they are mowed down. The Russians just hit Ukrainians with artillery again, and then keep on coming. And that has been a real, real problem. As you know, people have been worried about Ukraine running out of troops, and this, in a sense, postpones that reckoning, if it would ever come, because Ukraine went around the back. They went around to the left. They surprised the Russians. Russian border contingents were very, very thin, very, very untrained. And again, I remind you of last June, when Prigozhin moved around Russia, the same Russian border troops performed very poorly there. They were essentially undefended. And highly trained Ukrainian special forces, well equipped with armor, essentially in last week, just went right in. And again, it was a shock. One also might say Putin's arrogance apparently did not allow him to take into account that Ukraine could strike back. And they certainly have.

Brian Ross: We're speaking with Don Jensen, who's the Senior Advisor for Russia and Europe at the United States Institute for Peace. You can find him @donaldnjensen. And Don, Russia will respond in some way, Putin has to be embarrassed. There are videos being posted on social media showing large numbers of Russian troops surrendering with their hands in the air. That can't go over well in Russia. What's the likely response from Putin now? And to what extent will he blame the U.S. for all this?

Donald Jensen: Well, a couple of things. First of all, you ask a very good question. He's blaming the U.S., but this has been more a blame of the West, because he knows that the Biden administration, at least till now, has been very cautious about anything that would threaten to hit Russia. So, the concern is really about Ukraine right now, and Putin could respond in a number of ways. First of all, is move troops to the northeast to try to respond to the Ukrainian attack, but second, to increase the boundary of the attacks on civilian populations in Ukraine. Over the weekend, they hit the east, they hit the south, and they hit Kyiv's suburbs, killing people. So, he could intensify that, and I think that's likely the way they're going to go for now, because by all accounts, the Russian command and control is a mess, and that does not make for very efficient military reaction to a situation like this. I would also note that — this is to some extent, Putin's own fault — he sacked much of the top General Staff in April and May, having more people there. The others were largely corrupt. So, not only do you have the problem posed by Ukrainians, you've got a Russian military which at the very top, which is supposed to prepare and respond to this kind of threat, they have also been upset, destabilized. They have a lot of new people there who are in new positions.

Brian Ross: Does this change the prospects for some negotiations for peace?

Donald Jensen: Well, that is what everybody has been asking, let me say that I think [inaudible] negotiations are not very high. First, the Russians see negotiations very differently. They don't want a win-win by the two sides. They want to win and the West to lose. And so, we have to be careful that we don't talk about negotiations except in a realistic way, and we're not close to that in any case, that's a Ukraine decision. But second, there's nothing, really, to negotiate about. We know, through hundreds of statements by Putin and his cronies, Russia wants to take a big chunk of Ukraine at a minimum, and at a maximum, overthrow Zelensky and the Ukrainian government. That's not changed. For all this, for all this humiliation, for all this surprise, that has not changed at all. So, I think we're quite away from negotiations at the moment still. And in any case, that's a Ukrainian decision, that is not something for us or the West.

Brian Ross: And as you say, in the next few days, Ukraine has to make a decision. Do they keep pushing forward, putting in more troops, or is this just a feint.

Donald Jensen: Exactly right. Ukraine does not have a lot of troops. There are various numbers of, troop numbers, claimed in the offensive right now. But if you go too far, too fast, you don't consolidate your gains. Russia can attack, which is a big salient, which is sticking into the heart of Russia right now. Russia can easily bring troops in and try to close it off. So, Ukraine will more likely, in my view, at least, would be to come back a little bit, consolidate what it has, with the satisfaction — and I do say satisfaction — that they have humiliated the Kremlin and humiliated the Russian military, not for the first time. However, people have been frustrated, I think recently, in recent months, about the constant Russian attacks. Now, Ukraine has broken out of that. They said, look what we can do, and we can do it largely — above all, a strong psychological blow to the image that the Kremlin sometimes tries to project of Russia being all powerful, of Russia being on the offensive.

Brian Ross: Don Jensen, thank you so much. Don is the Senior Advisor for Russia and Europe at the United States Institute of Peace. With lots going on there, we'll keep a close eye on it. Don, thanks so much for being with us.