U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: One of those issues that we've been following pretty closely across the globe has been what's going on in Bangladesh as well. And joining me now is Tamanna Salikuddin, she is the USIP's director for South Asia. Tamanna, welcome and good morning. How are you?

Tamanna Salikuddin: Good morning, Laura. Thanks for having me.

Laura Coates: I'm glad that you're here. Take us back for a second, if you can, and help our learning curve for our audience. What is happening in Bangladesh that has had U.S. political figures leaning in?

Tamanna Salikuddin: Sure. So Bangladesh is a country we often don't necessarily pay attention to. But you know, Bangladesh is a very populous country. It's about the eighth largest country by population in the world. It's got two huge neighbors of China and India, and ostensibly, for the last many, about 15 years, you've had a government in power led by Sheikh Hasina that, from the outside, looked like it was delivering economic growth. Infrastructure development was able to balance India and China. But internally, there was a lot of corruption, a lot of inequality, and as in many countries, while ostensibly a democracy, was growing more and more autocratic.

And what we saw this summer were student protests that started in early July. They were, again, the spark for these protests were a job quota system that reserved a certain amount of jobs for people who had fought in Bangladesh's Liberation War in 1971 and their descendants, or for certain groups. And so it really, while it was the spark [to get] these protests started, they were really about the anger, the suppression and the disaffection from the political system in Bangladesh over the years. And the government's heavy handed response to these protests led to hundreds of deaths, thousands of injuries, but ultimately led, on August 5, to the abdication of their prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, who has now fled the country. And the head of the Army called for the forming of an interim government, which has been formed. Nobel Laureate, and the founder of the Grameen Bank, Muhammad Yunus, is leading that. So it's largely a technocratic interim government of retired folks, and they are really seeking, at this moment, to grasp that democratic spark. Can they bring the accountability [and] reform [that] hopefully lead[s] to elections that garner political legitimacy in this very important country.

Laura Coates: The fact that Sheikh Hasina has fled the country, and first, do we know where to? And what is the impact on having the army decide on this interim government?

Tamanna Salikuddin: Well, I think the army is playing a bit of an arbiter role. So Sheikh Hasina fled to India. I think it's important to note that India had invested a lot in terms of her but also in terms of Bangladesh – its, you know, its largest neighbor. It's economically and politically, very tied to India. So that was an important factor here. The military ... it's really interesting, so Sheikh Hasina's response to these ongoing protests was really heavy handed. She called for an all out curfew. She wanted the security forces basically to shoot on site for anyone who was breaking the curfew. And the military actually refused to do so, and they, at a certain point, said, "We are not going to go against any citizen who comes out on the streets". And that led to her really having to leave the country. At that point, she got the message that the military wasn't going to back her suppressive, you know, motivations.

I think your question is important. Bangladesh does have a history of military ruling. You know, in the 80s, definitely. I think in this moment, the military doesn't want to come out and take charge. So what they've got is they've taken advice from the protesters, the students, [and] most notably called for Muhammad Yunus, who's seen as apolitical, not corrupt, person who doesn't want political power to come in and lead this interim government. The job of the interim government is really to set forward the reforms that are going to lead to a new political culture. Now there's a lot of challenges. These are not politicians. You know, Sheikh Hasina's Awami League party has been ruling for 15 years. They've basically taken over every major institution in Bangladesh. And so to find a party or a set of politicians to just come in and take over is not that easy. The opposition is called the BNP, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. They themselves have been corrupt in the past, and you know, the protesters and the Reform Movement doesn't necessarily want them back.

But I think the challenge here will be, can Bangladesh itself and countries who share interest in seeing Bangladesh have a stable future, including India, including the U.S., can they come in, help with economic growth, help with infrastructure development, but address the corruption, inequality, through real reforms, ones that lead to political legitimacy? But also, I think the three places that we've seen real problems and the U.S. has sanctioned part of this, is security forces. So whether it's the rapid forces battalion, the police, military – where there have been human rights concerns, the Constitution – which has largely put all the power in the executive and the prime minister and really not had as many checks and balances as it needs, and the judiciary – which, over time, has been politicized. So Bangladesh has a, you know, this is a democratic moment, but can it actually capture the moment and go through and come out, more stable, more democratic in the end.

Laura Coates: When you look at the challenges, just the idea of a prime minister having fled, the idea of an interim government, the historical context you provided, is there a sense of a timeline for when this could happen? And what, by the way, is falling by the wayside while this is going on?

Tamanna Salikuddin: Right, that's a great question. I don't think anyone is pushing for elections right away because they know there are so many problems. And if you just hold snap elections, you'll largely have the opposition, BNP, come in, and you'll repeat the same problems you've had in the past. I think they want to leave a little bit of runway to really get in the reforms, but I do think people will lose patience, right? So within a year or so, you probably need legitimate elections, but elections must come with the necessary democratic reforms, otherwise you're going to repeat the past. Your question about, sorry, you were...

Laura Coates: What's falling by the wayside? And I mean the idea of not having a leadership, it's daunting.

Tamanna Salikuddin: Yeah, I mean, I think the military and the interim government are paying attention to this. They have an IMF program. Look, Bangladesh has had good economic growth compared to its neighbors, but that has really slowed down, given the war in Ukraine, given [the] Covid crisis [where] you have this international economic slowdown. And that has impacted Bangladesh quite a bit. And I think people are not going to have patience if there aren't jobs. Right now, we're seeing huge flooding that has affected millions of people in Bangladesh, so you're going to need to be delivering both relief when it comes to natural disasters, but at the same time, jobs and economic growth cannot suffer while people are waiting for elections or for a new government. So those are immediate needs that I think the military and the interim government and international partners really do have to focus on.

Laura Coates: Now the United States, normally, as you've mentioned, has not, it has not been a huge topic among the presidency or others to talk about what's going on in Bangladesh. But why? Why should Americans be so concerned about what's going on there?

Tamanna Salikuddin: That's absolutely right. You know, Bangladesh is an interesting country in the sense that it is, you know, almost 170 million people. It sits in a very strategic point in the Indian Ocean. It, like many other similarly placed countries in the Indo-Pacific, is really important to U.S. interests when it comes to balancing China, right? If we really are concerned about a free and open Indo-Pacific, if we want to maintain U.S. influence – we want to maintain friendly countries, but also prevent the worst of Chinese malign influences – countries like Bangladesh are really important. You know, the previous government, for all its problems, Sheikh Hasina was said to have balanced the influences of China and India really well. I think whichever government comes forward, the U.S. will be concerned about Chinese influence, and I think the best way to protect against that is a resilient democracy, right? A thriving civil society, a resilient democracy, robust institutions inside the country that can balance and be resilient to that Chinese influence. Importantly, this is a country on the Indian Ocean, and navigation of the Indian and Pacific Oceans is really important to U.S. national interests. And I think having a partner in Bangladesh is important for us in that regard.

Laura Coates: Who has been the point person in terms of looking at this issue. Is the State Department? Is it military? Who is the necessary party? 

Tamanna Salikuddin: Yeah, I mean, I think the State Department has been largely in the lead in terms of relationships with Bangladesh. You know, look, we've had decent relationships politically. We've had some bumps in the road where we've tried to hold them accountable for some of their human rights abuses when it comes to their security agencies, namely the rapid forces battalion, who we sanctioned a few years ago. But we have also been really engaged with them when it comes to the Rohingya. They have the largest number of Rohingya Muslim refugees, from Burma next door, in Bangladesh as refugees. So the U.S. has sought to help there as well. I think there are a lot of places where we can take this moment and help Bangladesh, but also ensure our interests in the region.

Laura Coates: Really important to hear this information. I'm so glad that you've brought it to us, and we feel more educated as a result. Tamanna, thank you so much for joining us.

Tamanna Salikuddin: Thanks so much.