U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Joining us now, Mona Yacoubian, the United States Institute of Peace's vice president for the Middle East and North Africa. Good morning, Mona. How are you?

Mona Yacoubian: I'm well. Laura, good morning.

Laura Coates: Well, you are certainly busy these days in the topic and region that you are covering in particular. This is such a fast-paced and fast-moving discussion that's always happening, and it's important for us to just set the groundwork right now and lay the foundation of the very latest that's happening. I know Blinken made a trip to the Middle East most recently. What's been happening?

Mona Yacoubian: Oh, so much has been happening. You're right, Secretary Blinken did recently make his 11th trip to the region in an effort to restart talks on a potential ceasefire and hostage exchange from Gaza. But we should also note, Laura, Israel undertook a long-awaited retaliatory strike against Iran early Saturday morning in the region. This was in retaliation for a strike that Iran took on Israel on October 1. So, we've got a region that really is on fire, and that's no exaggeration, unfortunately.

Laura Coates: Let's talk about that. I read your piece recently in ForeignAffairs.com about how you said, with the Middle East on fire, the United States could restore deterrence and pull the region back from the brink. How?

Mona Yacoubian: Well right now, we're looking at a region, really, in which there are no guardrails anymore. We've really seen all kinds of red lines crossed by all kinds of actors, whether non-state actors like Hezbollah and the Houthis, or state actors. As we said, we've seen Iran and Israel now in direct conflict. This is the second time we've seen this. The first was in April. So, in a lot of ways, a Rubicon has been crossed, and the region really is in sort of uncharted waters. So, what I'm arguing for is that the United States can play a key role by starting to really pull back and put in place different kinds of mechanisms to help with both immediate de-escalation amongst actors, and then also longer term, to build the foundation or a regional security architecture. This is perhaps the most conflict ridden, troubled part of the world, and there are no organizations in place to help address conflict diplomatically.

Laura Coates: Well what is the role so far of the United States in trying to secure those diplomatic ties? Is it that they are just not as influential? Is it that they need more? How could they do it?

Mona Yacoubian: Yeah, so I mean, we've seen, of course, lots of efforts. We just noted Secretary Blinken going to the Middle East multiple times, Special Envoy Amos Hochstein, who's in the region now. There's lots of shuttle diplomacy going on. The U.S. is seeking to leverage its relationships, certainly with Israel, with the Gulf and others. One argument is that the recent strikes that Israel undertook against Iran did not go after some of the most provocative targets, like Iran's nuclear facilities or its oil and energy infrastructure. That was likely at the urging of the Biden administration. So that is sort of a short-term measure for de-escalation, but again, in the longer term, more has to be done. The United States can take the lead, for example, in setting up de-confliction mechanisms, hotlines, back channeled communications amongst all of these actors, so that the risk of miscommunicating is mitigated. There's more the U.S. can do with respect to developing technology to counter drones and other kinds of weapons that often start off these really dangerous escalatory cycles. There are gaps in some of the existing economic sanctions that could be addressed. And then again, I think we really need, Laura, a longer-term vision here. How does this very troubled part of the world set in place an architecture to address conflicts honestly before they break out?

Laura Coates: It's so important to think about it and break it down the way that you have. And I think one of the frustrations that, you know, a virtual layman may be experiencing, or even those who are experts in this area, is that, unlike other conflicts, where we have become accustomed to clear red lines or mutually agreed upon rules of engagement, those seem to be increasingly obsolete, which is fatally undermining the efforts to get to the areas you're talking about.

Mona Yacoubian: You're absolutely right. I mean, this is why this period in the Middle East is so frightening. We're seeing actors undertake risks that we've never seen before. We don't have the kinds of clearly set red lines, and so in that kind of an environment, all of these different players are testing and probing each other to see what they can get away with. And that's where the danger lies, Laura. Because maybe it could be that none of these actors are really interested in an all-out war, but what we've learned in the past is wars often break out as a result of actors miscalculating, of not understanding that they've gone too far before it's too late. And so that is the situation we find ourselves in in the Middle East today, and it's really incumbent on the international community, quite frankly, to get together, to think through exactly how to bring this region back into something that's much more manageable than what we're witnessing today.

Laura Coates: Certainly, we have less than a minute left, but the idea of doing this is not just to protect the particular region. This could have catastrophic consequences the broader this conflict goes.

Mona Yacoubian: Absolutely. I'm really glad you raised that. We've seen, for example, already because of the Houthis, a Yemeni militia, we've seen shipping in the Red Sea delayed and impeded. The big concern is, if there is an all-out war in the region, we'll see oil and energy prices go sky high, with enormous implications for the global economy, including here in the United States.

Laura Coates: Really important to have your perspective and insight this morning. Thank you so much for joining us. Mona Yacoubian, the USIP's vice president for the Middle East and North Africa. Thank you for joining.

Mona Yacoubian: Thank you so much for having me. I appreciate it.