KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Nigerians marked their 64th independence day on October 1 with widespread protests fueled by growing public anger over soaring inflation, worsening insecurity, ineffective governance and rising fuel prices. This marks the second time in less than three months that citizens have taken to the streets. In August, during the “10 Days of Rage,” the appearance of Russian flags and calls for military intervention distracted from Nigeria’s entrenched governance and economic crises — issues that continue to drive insecurity and demand urgent government action. The latest protests coincide with local elections, heightening pressure on the government to demonstrate a genuine commitment to addressing citizens’ concerns in a tangible, meaningful way.
While unrest is always a risk, this moment should not be viewed as an immediate crisis but rather as a vital chapter in Nigeria’s democratic evolution. Protests and elections are essential democratic tools, offering a platform for the people to voice their grievances and for the government to engage in dialogue. How Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration navigates these challenges will be crucial, with the potential to reshape Nigeria’s political landscape for years to come.
Inspired in part by Kenya’s protests earlier this summer, Nigeria’s #EndBadGovernance protesters called for the reversal of Tinubu’s economic reforms — the removal of fuel subsidies and the “floating” of the Nigeria naira — citing rising inflation and government indifference to the people’s concerns. For the average citizen, government’s core responsibilities are to protect lives, safeguard property and provide basic welfare. When these fundamental functions are neglected, it signals a breakdown in the social contract between the state and its citizens. Under such conditions of frustration and anger, many Nigerians feel protest has become not just an option, but a necessity.
Under such conditions of frustration and anger, many Nigerians feel protest has become not just an option, but a necessity.
However, while protests can be swiftly organized, their outcomes are far less predictable. As seen during the August demonstrations, criminal elements infiltrated and hijacked the movement, resulting in looting and violence. In response, curfews were imposed across five northern states, over 1,150 arrests were made and 21 people were killed during the violent crackdown, according to Amnesty International.
Although the media amplified the presence of Russian flags and isolated calls for military intervention, these elements were marginal to the larger protests. Conflicting reports make it difficult to gauge the extent of pro-Russian sentiment, but it was clearly a minority. The arrest of 40 individuals for waving Russian flags, and statements from Nigerian Chief of Defense Staff Gen. Christopher Musa labeling these acts as treason, led to questions about whether the government was trying to stifle any emerging pro-Russia sentiment. Some critics argue that the focus on these fringe incidents — and the subsequent violence and looting — was a calculated distraction from the protesters’ legitimate grievances. Whether intentional or not, this media narrative, coupled with the unrest, dissuaded many from participating in the protests on October 1.
Meanwhile, the underlying grievances have only intensified. Inflation has soared to 33.4 percent and successive fuel price hikes by the state-owned oil company, compounded by ongoing fuel shortages, continue to squeeze the population. In a nation where many rely on generators due to limited access to the electricity grid, the skyrocketing cost of gasoline has a disproportionate impact on the well-being of average Nigerians. Public mistrust has deepened over the government's opaque handling of fuel subsidy savings since its removal by Tinubu on his first day in office in May 2023.
As Nigeria celebrates 25 years of uninterrupted democracy, a growing number of citizens are disillusioned with the system, seeing it as “civil rule” rather than true democratic “governance.” According to Afrobarometer’s 2024 report, 77 percent of Nigerians are dissatisfied with the current state of democracy, a 20 percent rise since 2017. However, 70 percent still consider it preferable to other forms of governance. This widening gap between democratic expectations and reality underscores the critical juncture Nigeria now faces.
Youth are at the forefront of this disillusionment. High unemployment and underemployment among young Nigerians are fueling frustrations, as they grapple with economic uncertainty and a lack of job opportunities. With roughly 70 percent of the population under 30 (and 42 percent under 15), ignoring their voices is untenable. If their demands for economic relief and governance reforms go unanswered, this discontent is bound to escalate.
Nigeria’s youth, having never experienced military rule firsthand, are growing increasingly vocal about their dissatisfaction with the current system. There is a risk that their frustration could make them more receptive to alternative forms of governance, like the military juntas now in power in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. While this concern isn’t unique to Nigeria — Afrobarometer found that 56 percent of Africans aged 18 to 35 would tolerate a military-led government if elected leaders abuse their power — the trajectory of this demographic is critical. They could either drive positive change through democratic engagement and economic empowerment or, if neglected, become a source of instability. Either way, their experiences today, shaped by the actions of Nigeria’s leadership, will inform the kind of leaders they grow up to be.
For now, youth discontent is fueling serious calls for change, evidenced by their prominent role in the #EndBadGovernance protests in August and on October 1. A warning sign of instability will be if these frustrations are no longer channeled constructively. When disillusionment leads to disengagement from the political process, democracy faces its greatest threat. While low voter turnout in recent elections suggest rising apathy, the vibrant youth movements offer hope for a positive shift — even if it’s a change that may be realized more fully by the next generation.
The local elections currently underway across Nigeria mark a crucial test for the Tinubu administration, coming at a time when public trust in democratic institutions is waning. The July 2024 Supreme Court ruling that granted financial autonomy to local governments is a landmark decision aimed at strengthening governance at the grassroots level. By allowing funds to flow directly to elected local governments — rather than being funneled through state governors, who have long been accused of misappropriating these resources — the ruling promises to decentralize power and improve accountability.
However, concerns persist over the influence of state governors on the electoral process. Unlike federal elections, which are overseen by the Independent National Electoral Commission, local elections fall under the purview of State Independent Electoral Commissions. Ensuring that these elections are free, fair and transparent is critical to restoring or reinforcing public trust in Nigeria’s democratic institutions. If managed well, these elections could provide the government with a tangible opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to reforms, accountability and the long-term strengthening of democracy.
Despite ongoing criticisms and demands for reforms, the military remains a key player in Nigeria’s security landscape. While some #EndBadGovernance protesters called for military intervention, the military was clear about its respect for democracy and the constitution, rather than seizing power. Public statements from military leadership reaffirmed their loyalty to the democratic process, which helped calm fears and dispel calls for a coup. The challenge for the government will be maintaining this delicate balance while addressing public demands for good governance and the protection of lives and property.
Managing security during the protests and local elections will be a major test for both Nigeria’s security forces and the Tinubu administration. Regions with preexisting tensions and insecurity are at heightened risk for instability, but with strategic planning, clear communication and transparency, these risks can be minimized. Ensuring peaceful and credible elections will be essential for preserving public trust in the democratic process and demonstrating that Nigeria’s leaders are capable of upholding stability and responding to the demands of its people.
At the core of the protests and public dissatisfaction is a demand for greater transparency and accountability from the government. The removal of the fuel subsidy, while necessary to combat corruption and capital flight, has been poorly communicated, leaving the public in the dark about how the savings are being allocated. As fuel prices soar and economic relief remains elusive, public trust in the government’s ability to effectively manage the country’s resources has significantly eroded.
At the core of the protests and public dissatisfaction is a demand for greater transparency and accountability from the government.
The Supreme Court’s recent ruling on local government autonomy provides a framework for improving governance at the grassroots level, but political will is needed to fully implement these reforms. Combating corruption and ensuring that local governments receive and manage funds transparently will be key to restoring public faith in the government. Without visible progress on these fronts, the gap between the people’s expectations and the government’s actions will only widen, fueling further discontent.
Nigeria’s economic challenges are severe. Soaring fuel prices, high unemployment and inflation are driving public discontent. In some regions, these economic grievances have exacerbated insecurity, especially in areas where criminal groups or militias exploit the situation. To ease public frustration and mitigate the risk of further unrest, the government must consider targeted economic relief measures — such as temporary fuel subsidies, cash transfers or job creation programs.
Yet, despite these difficulties, there are bright spots in the economy, particularly in Nigeria’s burgeoning digital sector. Young entrepreneurs and tech innovators are helping to diversify the economy, creating new opportunities and reshaping industries. However, the digital economy alone cannot solve the broader structural issues — like rampant unemployment and inequality — that are driving much of the public discontent. A broader economic strategy is urgently needed. Diversifying from oil dependency toward sectors like agribusiness and solid minerals is critical to achieving sustainable, long-term growth. Unfortunately, the government has yet to prioritize these sectors in a meaningful way, missing key opportunities to foster a more resilient and inclusive economy.
The government has a critical opportunity to address public concerns and demonstrate its responsiveness in the short term. By engaging constructively with protesters, ensuring transparent local elections and providing immediate economic relief, it can mitigate the risks of unrest and stabilize the political landscape.
However, lasting change will require more substantial reforms. Strengthening local government autonomy, enhancing transparency in public spending and tackling corruption are essential steps to rebuild public trust. Additionally, diversifying the economy and creating greater opportunities for Nigeria’s youth will be crucial in addressing the root causes of the current discontent. Without these long-term commitments, the cycle of dissatisfaction is likely to persist, undermining the government’s credibility and the nation’s stability.
The United States can play a pivotal role in supporting Nigeria during this critical period by continuing to encourage democratic governance and anti-corruption efforts. Offering technical support for transparency initiatives and capacity-building in resource management would help Nigeria address long-standing governance issues. Strengthening local government autonomy and enhancing transparency in public spending are essential for restoring public trust, and U.S. assistance could bolster these efforts by providing expertise and tools to implement reforms effectively.
Targeted economic assistance in job creation and education, particularly for Nigeria’s youth, in the digital, agricultural and mining sectors could make a significant impact, especially when coupled with diaspora-driven investment. Programs like USAID's Feed the Future and Farmer-to-Farmer are positive examples in the agricultural sector. Initiatives such as the Global Inclusivity and Artificial Intelligence: Africa Conference and the joint memorandum of understanding on digital economy collaboration are promising steps. Empowering Nigeria’s young population through these opportunities is crucial for stability.
Additionally, the United States can use its influence to support Nigeria’s reform agenda by sending strong diplomatic signals. By clearly backing democratic governance and discouraging repressive government responses to protests, the United States can help prevent backsliding on democratic principles. This messaging, combined with tangible support, will reinforce the need for transparency, accountability and inclusive governance as Nigeria works to address the underlying causes of unrest.
Nigeria’s democracy, while resilient in its electoral processes, stands at a crossroads. It cannot be taken for granted; concerted efforts are essential to consolidate the gains achieved since 1999, when Nigeria transitioned from military rule to a civilian government. Empowering Nigeria’s youth through economic opportunities and inclusive governance is paramount to ensuring a stable and democratic future.
The October 1 protests and local elections are pivotal moments that will shape that future. While risks are inherent, these events also offer significant opportunities for the government to address the root causes of public discontent. If managed effectively, they could enable the Tinubu administration to rebuild public trust, consolidate democratic gains and reaffirm Nigeria’s leadership role in West Africa.
By prioritizing governance reforms, economic relief and security, Nigeria can navigate these challenges and emerge even stronger. This moment should be viewed as an important part of Nigeria’s broader democratic journey — an opportunity to strengthen its institutions and foster long-term stability.
Dr. Chris Kwaja is USIP’s Nigeria country director and associate professor of international relations and strategic studies at Modibbo Adama University in Yola.