Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
What a Russian Nuclear Escalation Would Mean for China and India
Since Russia began its assault on Ukraine last February, India and China have straddled the fence by hinting at their concerns regarding the war’s global fallout while avoiding direct public criticism of Moscow. Despite rhetorical consternation and calls for a peaceful resolution, neither has shown a willingness to meaningfully push back against Putin’s escalations in Ukraine. Instead, the two Asian nuclear powers are approaching the situation with caution and calculated diplomacy to preserve their own strategic interests — both in Russia and the West.
Myanmar’s Criminal Zones: A Growing Threat to Global Security
International media and law enforcement are waking up to a new post-COVID trend in transnational crime: the proliferation of criminally run zones in Myanmar and across Southeast Asia, and an explosion of human trafficking for labor in these ungoverned enclaves.
Women Help Nonviolent Campaigns Succeed, But Nonviolent Discipline Remains Crucial
In recent weeks, the world has watched in awe as Iranian women rise in peaceful protest against their country’s violent and patriarchal theocracy. Their courage is at once extraordinary and familiar, paralleling other inspiring episodes of women-led nonviolent activism. Indeed, women have played central roles in many of the world’s most impressive nonviolent campaigns.
Pakistan’s Roadmap for COP27: In Search of a Strategic Vision
The international community has gathered this week in Egypt for the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP27) and will be discussing a range of issues including loss and damage, climate finance, adaptation, and mitigation over the next two weeks. This year’s COP27 is being held in the aftermath of Pakistan’s disastrous summer floods, which led to the announcement that Pakistan’s Prime Minster Shahbaz Sharif will serve as vice-chair of the summit.
From Factionalism to Foreign Interference: Libya’s Conflict Remains Frozen
Over 11 years after the death of dictator Muammar Qaddafi, Libya’s conflict is seemingly stuck in place. Rival governments in the country’s East and West, factionalism, militia warfare and foreign interference have all contributed to a complex conflict that still has no resolution in sight. In a bid to advance the peace process, the United Nations convened the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) in late 2020 with 75 Libyans from across the country’s diverse social and political spectrum. Among other things, participants agreed on a roadmap for national elections to be held on December 24, 2021.
The Geopolitics of Deep-Sea Mining and Green Technologies
For the first time, the International Energy Agency is reporting that global demand for fossil fuels will peak or plateau in the next decade as the world transitions to renewable energy. This is a welcome development ahead of the 27th U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP27), which includes a focus on the “promise of innovation and clean technologies” to mitigate the climate crisis. However, there is often a disconnect between the prospect of green technologies and the reality surrounding the minerals and materials required to produce them.
In Moldova, Russia Wages Another Hybrid War
The past week underscores a rising threat in Europe from Russia’s savage assault on Ukraine: the Kremlin’s parallel destabilization of tiny Moldova, between Ukraine and Romania. The Kremlin is escalating a hybrid subversion campaign against Moldova’s effort to build a stable democracy and join the European Union. It is choking off vital gas supplies to tank the economy, sponsoring mass anti-government protests and helping a fugitive Moldovan oligarch launch the latest of several pro-Russia political parties. European policymakers say Moldova, partly occupied by Russian troops, is one of the countries most vulnerable to a spread of the war in Ukraine.
In Afghanistan, Was a Loss Better than Peace?
The American war in Afghanistan incurred staggering costs — for the United States, Afghans and others — over two decades. The U.S. government spent $2.3 trillion, and the war led to the deaths of 2,324 U.S. military personnel, 3,917 U.S. contractors and 1,144 allied troops. For Afghans, the statistics are nearly unimaginable: 70,000 Afghan military and police deaths, 46,319 Afghan civilians (although that is likely a significant underestimation) and some 53,000 opposition fighters killed. Almost 67,000 other people were killed in Pakistan in relation to the Afghan war.
Ukraine’s Africa Visit Shows Its Fight Against Russia Goes Beyond the Battlefield
In the days before Russia’s bombing escalation in Ukraine in early October, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was visiting Africa in a bid to garner support and counter Moscow’s propaganda about the war. While much of the Western world has rallied around Ukraine, African states have largely avoided taking sides. For its part, Russia has been on a diplomatic offensive in much of the Global South, lobbying African, Asian, Latin American, and Middle Eastern countries to not join international sanctions and condemnation against Moscow. Indeed, Ukraine’s fight against Russia is not only taking place on the battlefield, but also through an ambitious and needed international diplomacy efforts that extends from Europe to the Global South.
Understanding the People’s Defense Forces in Myanmar
When the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) first coalesced in Myanmar in 2021, many viewed them as hastily organized groups of young vigilantes who would be quickly overrun by the junta’s military force, known as the Sit-Tat. Instead, the PDFs have grown in size, organization and capability over the last year and half, and now pose a major threat to the junta’s viability. Though they lack heavy equipment, an advanced command structure and international support, the proliferating PDFs have demonstrated remarkable tactical ingenuity and resilience. If they improve their command structure and weaponry, they could help expand territory under resistance control and hasten the junta’s demise.