Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Facing Climate-Driven Migration and Displacement Head-On
In the run-up to the COP26 summit on climate change, the U.S. government released its Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration on October 21 — one of three major climate reports, along with the National Intelligence Estimate and the climate risk analysis by the Department of Defense, from the Biden administration. With these reports, the U.S. government now formally recognizes that climate change is likely to contribute to significant displacement and migration, and with it, political and social instability that jeopardize U.S. interests.
A New Myanmar Forum Aims to Unite Democratic Forces
Since the Myanmar military overthrew the country’s elected government early this year, the forces of resistance have set two immediate objectives: Prevent the generals from gaining military and administrative control of the country, and unify their own diverse and fractious democracy movement. The movement has made progress toward the first goal. On the second, a shared vision of the future is yet to emerge, as divergent stakeholders struggle to overcome historical grievances.
Scott Worden on Afghanistan’s Dire Humanitarian and Economic Crises
As Afghans face mass hunger and economic collapse, USIP’s Scott Worden says it remains to be seen how the Taliban will react to internal and external pressure to address these crises: “Will they respond … by adapting, by softening policies, by being more inclusive or will they have a crackdown?”
How China Responds to Instability on Its Periphery: Lessons from Afghanistan and Myanmar
China’s timid rhetoric and underwhelming actions vis-à-vis recent political upheaval in two different neighboring countries belie the image of a confident and assertive Beijing. What explains this apparent paradox? Despite the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s outward bravado, combined with unprecedented expansion of China’s regional and global activities and presence, Xi Jinping and his Politburo colleagues remain wary when it comes to taking risks abroad. Certainly, when China believes its interests are being directly attacked, such as in recent disputes with Australia and India, the state has opted for riskier, more aggressive moves. But where Beijing is not a direct party to the conflict, caution can override its willingness to take action that would show its hand or put China in a situation where it is not guaranteed to avoid a messy exit, à la the United States in Afghanistan.
Donald Jensen on Secretary Austin’s Visit to Georgia, Romania and Ukraine
USIP’s Donald Jensen looks at what Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s recent trip to several countries along the Black Sea means for U.S. policy, saying, “We are looking at the region in its entirety … and Romania, Ukraine and Georgia are key players in the broader effort to curb Russian influence in the region.”
How to Respond to a ‘Year of Coups?’ We Can Try in Mali.
In a year replete with military coups against the principles of democratic rule, this week’s coup in Sudan and a less-noted setback in Mali underscore that U.S. and international policymakers must improve their efforts to support democracy by rebalancing their assistance to fragile states at high risk. Supporting democracy amid this season of coups means targeting that assistance at the root causes of upheaval in regions such as Africa’s Sahel. In part, this means acting quickly—but shifting our focus to long-term stability and human security, rather than simply seeking perceived short-term counter-terrorism gains.
Myanmar’s Unity Government Meets with NSA Sullivan, Gains Further Traction
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently met with representatives of Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) — a shadow government representing the lawmakers elected by the people in the November 2020 election. The meeting boosted the NUG’s regional and international profile as an alternative to the brutal violence of the Burmese military, which has failed to gain control over the country since last February’s coup. But questions remain about whether the NUG and the disparate ethnic armed groups, political parties and civil society leaders that reject military rule can find common ground beyond a shared enemy.
Pakistan’s Shifting Political and Economic Winds
There was an air of optimism in May 2021, when Pakistan’s finance minister, Shaukat Tarin, told Bloomberg that his government would spend almost $6 billion to create jobs and stimulate growth. The aim, he argued, was to achieve a GDP growth rate of over 5 percent. Fast forward to October and the tone has significantly changed, with the finance minister informing an audience in Washington that growth had to be moderated to prevent macroeconomic risks from materializing, meaning that Pakistan cannot afford to grow too fast.
Dissecting Sudan’s Coup
On October 25, Sudan’s military detained the country’s prime minister and key civilian leaders, dissolved the government and declared a state of emergency. The coup, which has put in doubt Sudan’s transition to democracy, quickly prompted protests in the streets of the capital Khartoum and other cities. Some protesters were killed after being fired on by security forces and calls for mass protests on October 30 are growing. USIP’s Joseph Tucker and Manal Taha analyze what the latest developments in Sudan mean for the country and consider the options for the United States to respond to this crisis.
Keith Mines on Secretary Blinken’s Trip to Colombia
As Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Colombia, USIP’s Keith Mines notes there is still work to be done in implementing and expanding the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC insurgency, saying that “consolidating the peace in a place like Colombia was almost as hard as fighting the war itself.”