Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Ukraine: The Dangers in Russia’s New Offensive
After the Ukrainian armed forces defeated Russian troops, forcing them to retreat from their assault on Kyiv and northern Ukraine, Russia has concentrated its forces on eastern and southeastern Ukraine, with a notoriously brutal general now in command. These changes open a new chapter in Vladimir Putin’s assault that will be unpredictable and potentially more destructive. The humanitarian cost, notably in the besieged port of Mariupol, has grown only more calamitous. This new chapter will heighten the stakes both for aggressors and defenders—and the imperative for democracies to sustain support for Ukraine, including with longer-range weapons for its defense.
As Myanmar Coup Spurs National Resistance, a Unified Nation Could Emerge
The military’s coup in Myanmar has been a tragedy in every respect but one: It is increasingly clear that the generals’ power grab and bloody repression have united Myanmar’s diverse — and often adverse — ethnic and political groups to resist a common enemy and seek a better future. Ironically, the army, which has argued since independence that it alone can hold the country together, has inadvertently spurred a revolutionary and irreversible nation-building dialogue aimed at creating a federal democratic system and more inclusive national identity. The National Unity Consultative Committee, the platform for this dialogue, may be slow, complex and contentious, but its participants stay at the table for one reason: It offers the best opportunity to escape Myanmar’s vicious cycle of violence and authoritarian rule.
China’s Ukraine Gambit: Beijing Plays Both Sides
Beijing finds itself astride two policy tracks that appear to be moving in opposite directions: committed to affirming its carefully cultivated ties with Russia but also committed to upholding, at least rhetorically, the inviolability of territorial sovereignty. As Russia’s invasion enters a new phase, and more evidence of tragedies of emerge, China’s gambit may become increasingly uncomfortable.
Ukraine War Puts New Focus on Conflict in Western Sahara
After years of stagnation in the conflict over the Western Sahara, the Russian war on Ukraine and other recent events could create openings to advance long-stalled Western Sahara peace efforts. Unprecedented parallel visits by America’s top two diplomats to Morocco and Algeria last month suggest that the U.S. is exploring this new opening. The United States should firmly grasp any new chance to end this often-forgotten conflict, which helps breed conditions for extremism and transnational crime, prevents much needed economic growth, and which risks worsened instability from the Mediterranean to Africa’s Sahel region.
What Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Means for African Governments
As Russia’s war in Ukraine advances into its second month, the conflict’s effects continue to ripple across the world. In Africa, the conflict is upending long-term trends across the continent and eliciting mixed reactions from governments. As increased sanctions push the Kremlin to further explore relationships with countries outside of Europe and the United States, African countries are currently left with impending shortages in food and financing for energy projects. While some see this as an opportunity to build economic capacity from within the continent, others have opened the door for the Russian government to re-shape its approach toward Africa.
Tamanna Salikuddin on the Fall of Pakistan’s Imran Khan
Over the weekend, Imran Khan became the first Pakistani prime minister to be ousted in a no-confidence vote. USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin says, “There are a lot of reasons why he lost the support of [the] military establishment and also parliament” but that “his downfall really, number one, was the economy.”
Ukraine Crisis Prompts China to Swing Behind Myanmar’s Junta
After a year of tentative ties with Myanmar’s democratic opposition, China this month dropped all pretension of hedging its bets and ramped up support for the military regime. Beijing framed its decisive economic and political move in part as a response to the “Ukraine crisis,” hinting that Russian backing for the junta may wane on the heels of Moscow’s stumbles in Ukraine, forcing China to fill the gap. With China bringing increasing pressure on Southeast Asian states to follow its lead in legitimizing Myanmar’s dictatorship, all parties in the region, and those with interests in it, will have to rethink their Myanmar strategies.
Dissent and Dialogue: The Role of Mediation in Nonviolent Uprisings
While both mediation and nonviolent resistance have been the subject of significant scholarly work, the connection of the two fields has received less attention. Using newly collected data on nonviolent uprisings Africa from the Mediation in Nonviolent Campaigns data set, this report explores several questions: When does mediation occur in the context of nonviolent campaigns? Who tends to mediate? What are the challenges, and what are the outcomes? The study offers overall takeaways, policy conclusions, and recommendations for future research.
What’s Next for Pakistan’s Politics After Ouster of Imran Khan?
After a month of political crisis in Islamabad, Pakistan’s united opposition parties successfully removed Prime Minister Imran Khan in a vote of no confidence on April 10 and then on April 11 voted in opposition leader Shahbaz Sharif as the new prime minister. The votes came after the Supreme Court of Pakistan blocked earlier attempts by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party government to dismiss the motion and move directly to fresh elections. Khan remains defiant despite his ouster.
Ukraine: Justice for War Crimes Must Begin with Evidence
Photos and reporting emerging following the withdrawal of Russian forces from towns near Kyiv have triggered global revulsion, notably at the apparent summary execution of civilians. This initial evidence strongly suggests that Russian behavior in towns like Bucha and Irpin amounts to the widespread, systematic violence against civilians typical of atrocity crimes. World leaders have condemned the violence as war crimes, urging investigations and accountability. Ensuring eventual accountability for perpetrators and justice for victims means governments and others must quickly support the essential first step: the broadest possible collection of evidence.