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Why We Should Back Ukraine’s Diplomatic Long Game

Why We Should Back Ukraine’s Diplomatic Long Game

Tuesday, August 22, 2023

A number of commentators have criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s latest peace summit in Jeddah for failing to produce tangible deliverables. What these criticisms miss is that Ukraine is playing a game of diplomatic attrition aimed at countering Russia’s central objective: international acquiescence to its violent seizure of a neighbor’s territory. The United States should support Ukraine’s efforts, most immediately by seeking a U.N.-sanctioned conference on the sidelines of next month's U.N. General Assembly session.

Type: Analysis

Global PolicyPeace Processes

Citizen State and Community Relations in Building Local Governance

Citizen State and Community Relations in Building Local Governance

Monday, August 21, 2023

Since the revolution in 2011 and the toppling of the long-standing regime of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has experienced various degrees of political instability and conflict. A succession of internationally supported “transitions” have failed to bring the Libyan people a functioning state with a clear social contract based on a shared vision for the nation. This paper discusses the present challenges for good local governance as perceived by Libyan citizens and institutional actors. Through this lens, recommendations are offered for immediate, short-, and medium-term initiatives that can support the improvement of citizen relations with the three traditional arms of the state—the legislative, executive, and judicial branches.

Type: Discussion Paper

Democracy & Governance

Piecing Together the Fragments of Memory to Find Vietnamese War Dead

Piecing Together the Fragments of Memory to Find Vietnamese War Dead

Thursday, August 17, 2023

On the afternoon of March 12, 2022, I received an urgent message from Lâm Hồng Tiên, an engineer and close friend who has dedicated more than a decade to researching Vietnam War documents. He informed me about the discovery of a mass grave of soldiers from the 22nd Regiment of the People’s Army of (North) Vietnam (PAVN) who died in a fierce battle in the early morning of December 27, 1966, in Bình Định province. This was not an ordinary discovery — it resulted from the recollection of some U.S. veterans who buried the soldiers after the battle. I was elated by the finding, as I felt we could do something meaningful with it.

Type: Analysis

Reconciliation

It Is Time to Account for All Missing Vietnamese

It Is Time to Account for All Missing Vietnamese

Thursday, August 17, 2023

As the 50th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War approaches in 2025, the subject of remains recovery, those missing in action, and the memorialization of war-related dead from the Republic of Vietnam (RVN or South Vietnam) deserves attention. While the governments of the United States and Vietnam have attempted to locate and honor fallen soldiers, the war dead affiliated with the former RVN have not been officially recognized or effectively addressed.

Type: Analysis

Reconciliation

What to Expect from the Trilateral Summit with Japan and South Korea

What to Expect from the Trilateral Summit with Japan and South Korea

Thursday, August 17, 2023

After months of steadily increasing diplomatic exchanges — and a historic thaw in tensions between South Korea and Japan — President Joe Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at Camp David for a trilateral summit on August 18. The three leaders have previously met on the sidelines of larger multilateral forums, such as last year’s NATO summit, but the Camp David meeting marks the first standalone leader-level summit between the three countries.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Dean Cheng on China-Philippines Confrontations in the South China Sea

Dean Cheng on China-Philippines Confrontations in the South China Sea

Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Tensions between China and the Philippines over control of Second Thomas Shoal have become the focal point of China’s increasingly aggressive efforts to assert dominance over the South China Sea, says USIP’s Dean Cheng: “Essentially what [China] is saying is that huge swath of ocean … is somehow Chinese waters.”

Type: Podcast

Achieving Climate Security

Achieving Climate Security

Tuesday, August 15, 2023

The ambition of civilian leaders at the Pentagon to bring climate security policy to scale quickly is running into the shoals of a peculiar reality: climate security as a concept is not well defined and controversial, even as climate impacts on societies are mounting. There is clearly a connection between the effects of a changing climate and security—security both in the broadest sense of the safety and well-being of human societies and in the narrower sense of threats to civil order—but there is insufficient climate security research and analysis to guide policy.

Type: Discussion Paper

Environment

How Should the U.S. Respond to China’s Brazen Pursuit of Spratly Islands Claim?

How Should the U.S. Respond to China’s Brazen Pursuit of Spratly Islands Claim?

Tuesday, August 15, 2023

In recent weeks, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has dispatched ships and other maritime forces to the disputed Spratly islands near the Philippines. The goal has been to coerce the Philippines into withdrawing from the contested Second Thomas Shoal, effectively ceding it to the PRC. China’s actions are in defiance of the international Permanent Court of Arbitration’s findings that undermine PRC claims to the Spratlys. They therefore constitute a serious challenge to the international rules governing maritime conduct, as well as to broader peace and stability in the South China Sea, through which enormous amounts of global trade flow.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Two Years Under the Taliban: Is Afghanistan a Terrorist Safe Haven Once Again?

Two Years Under the Taliban: Is Afghanistan a Terrorist Safe Haven Once Again?

Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Two years into Taliban rule, the question of whether Afghanistan would once again become a safe haven for international terrorism remains alive. Longstanding fears were affirmed a little over a year ago, when the U.S. government located al-Qaeda leader Aimen al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan, before killing him in a drone strike. The fact that the Taliban would bring Zawahiri back to Kabul, despite repeated assurances to U.S. negotiators both before and after the Doha agreement that they had distanced themselves from al-Qaeda, significantly elevated concerns.

Type: Analysis

Violent Extremism

Five Flashpoints in the Philippines-China Relationship

Five Flashpoints in the Philippines-China Relationship

Monday, August 14, 2023

The flashpoints should be viewed against the backdrop of China’s new coast guard law, which took effect on February 1, 2021. Under this new coast guard law, China’s Coast Guard is authorized “to use all necessary measures including the use of weapons” to enforce China’s territorial and maritime claims, in the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention