Eight days after the prime ministers of India and Pakistan met suddenly in December to renew diplomatic dialogue between their countries, a squad of guerrilla fighters, apparently from Pakistan , disrupted the effort with an attack on India’s Pathankot air force base. The governments quickly postponed a planned meeting of their foreign secretaries. A pattern of such crises has recurred over the past decade and a half, and the United States often has sought to quietly mediate to avoid war between the nuclear-armed neighbors. What lessons can we learn from those experiences, and how should U.S. diplomats prepare for future disruptions?

FTZ_6704-X3.jpg

A panel of scholars and analysts who have helped manage U.S. relations in South Asia joined USIP’s Moeed Yusuf to examine these and related issues. They assessed the Pathankot attack and past crises, including roles the United States can play in mediating them. The discussion addressed changes in the India-Pakistan relationship since the 2008 attack by Pakistani guerrillas on Mumbai, and prospects for regional relations as the two sides respond to Pathankot and debate the renewal of a comprehensive dialogue.

Participants

Daniel Markey
Director of Global Policy Program at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Polly Nayak
Independent Consultant

Edward Wittenstein
Executive Director of Yale University Johnson Center for the Study of American Diplomacy

Moeed Yusuf, Moderator
Director for South Asia Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace

Related Publications

At SCO, Pakistan Promotes Relevance as China Projects Influence

At SCO, Pakistan Promotes Relevance as China Projects Influence

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Last week, Pakistan hosted leaders from China, Russia, India, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Iran and Belarus for the 23rd Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. While the lead-up to the summit highlighted the constraints that Pakistan’s internal troubles place on its ability to play an active role in global diplomacy, Islamabad was able to sidestep any serious diplomatic faux pas. India’s attendance may have left a door cracked to dialogue between Pakistan and its neighboring rival.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy

Will the IMF’s $7 Billion Bailout Stabilize Pakistan’s Economy?

Will the IMF’s $7 Billion Bailout Stabilize Pakistan’s Economy?

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $7 billion loan for Pakistan aimed at helping the South Asian nation stabilize its economy. After assuming power earlier this year, Pakistan’s new coalition government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had approached the IMF for the 25th time for a loan. On September 12, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said his country had met all the conditions set by the IMF to qualify for a new loan. And on September 25, the IMF signed a formal approval of the loan.

Type: Question and Answer

Economics

Toward a Durable India-Pakistan Peace: A Roadmap through Trade

Toward a Durable India-Pakistan Peace: A Roadmap through Trade

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Despite a three-year long cease-fire along their contested border, trade and civil society engagement between India and Pakistan has dwindled, exacerbating the fragility of their relationship. With recently re-elected governments now in place in both countries, there is a window of opportunity to rekindle trade to bolster their fragile peace, support economic stability in Pakistan, create large markets and high-quality jobs on both sides, and open doors for diplomatic engagement that could eventually lead to progress on more contentious issues.

Type: Analysis

Economics

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Narendra Modi was sworn in on June 9 for his third consecutive term as India’s prime minister. Public polls had predicted a sweeping majority for Modi, so it came as some surprise that his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost ground with voters and had to rely on coalition partners to form a ruling government. Although India’s elections were fought mainly on domestic policy issues, there were important exceptions and Modi’s electoral setback could have implications for India’s regional and global policies.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

View All Publications