Ahead of the country's critical 2011 referendum on whether the South should secede from Sudan, USIP is dedicated to help resolve internal conflicts and help ensure the country's future stability and security. In "Notes from Sudan," USIP's Jon Temin writes about his recent tour of the country to get an update on the status of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended decades of civil war in Sudan and learn about preparations for the 2011 referendum and the 2010 national elections.
by Jonathan Temin
Ahead of the country's critical 2011 referendum on whether the South should secede from Sudan, USIP is dedicated to help resolve internal conflicts and help ensure the country's future stability and security. In "Notes from Sudan," USIP's Jon Temin writes about his recent tour of the country to get an update on the status of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended decades of civil war in Sudan and learn about preparations for the 2011 referendum and the 2010 national elections. In this report, Temin assesses the progress made thus far by the government of Southern Sudan, and explores the various tensions within the country, the prospects for peace, and the international community's role in Sudan's future. As he prepared to return to the U.S., Temin concludes that "while the U.S. and international community can play an important role in bridging the divides between the North and South, it is ultimately up to the Sudanese to find solutions to their myriad challenges."
July 27th: Juba, Southern Sudan
I am in Juba, the capital of Southern Sudan, to get an update on the status of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended decades of civil war in Sudan and learn about preparations for two critical upcoming events: elections scheduled for April 2010 and a referendum on whether Southern Sudan will secede scheduled for January 2011.
Juba is noticeably larger than when I last visited two years ago, though tiny in comparison to the capital, Khartoum. Many new buildings have sprung-up – restaurants, hotels, airline offices – but one wonders if the vast majority of the population benefit from these improvements. From most accounts, there has been little "peace dividend" -- quality-of-life improvements felt by people throughout society -- following the CPA in Southern Sudan, one of the least developed regions of Africa.
Over past six days in
But some of the expats’ pessimism is warranted. The government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) faces a budget crisis (due to a combination of dropping oil prices and other factors), the 2010 elections present an almost insurmountable hurdle as they are currently configured, and intermittent incidents of violence have flared in recent months throughout the South.
That said, a piece of advice that I received in different variations from several people sticks in my head: remember where Southern Sudan is coming from and the relatively brief existence of the GoSS.
Prior to 2005, there was no southern government, no ministers, no budget -- only 22 years of war. If we compare the current GoSS to almost any other functioning government, of course it lags behind. But if we compare it to the GoSS in 2005, important progress has been made. Many of the people running the government now, including GoSS President Salva Kiir, were previously career military officers. Some managed to escape the war for education elsewhere, but others did not. To expect them to seamlessly switch from military fatigues to business suits is unrealistic. Expectations of the GoSS need to be managed.
I also found that expectation management will be an important piece of the 2010 elections. Those elections would be complex in any context: southerners will vote for a national president, a GoSS president, state governors, national parliamentarians and southern parliamentarians (with both parliaments employing three different types of elections, including one reserved for female candidates). This may result in up to 12 different ballots in the South, with possibly more than 60 political parties contesting. Holding such an election in the U.S. would be difficult. In Sudan -- especially in the South -- it will be a monumental challenge. Hence, I remind myself of the advice: expectation management. People I spoke with emphasized that while they anticipate the elections will be far from perfect, the elections could be an important step in the progression towards democracy, something dearly needed in Sudan and a valuable experience for a population with little or no voting history.
But the elections won’t bring democracy, which happens as much between elections as on election day. And if expectations are that they will, we may be setting these elections up for failure.
July 30th: Damazin, Blue Nile State
After flying up to Khartoum from Juba, it was a seven-hour drive on unevenly paved roads to Damazin, the capital of Blue Nile state, located near Sudan's eastern border with Ethiopia. Blue Nile state (its name comes from the part of the great river that flows into Ethiopia) is one of Sudan's "three areas" – transitional zones carved out by the CPA that are jointly administered by the North and South. Compared to neighboring Southern Kordofan state, Blue Nile has a reputation for relative calm, which is often attributed to its governor, Malik Agar. In Damazin, we visited the Malik Cultural Center that he built, a gleaming new building where we saw a library, internet café, local crafts, a modern conference center -- and a U.N. peacekeeper in his underwear (apparently living in a wing of the center and surprised to see us accidentally stumble into his quarters)!
I came here to observe a workshop led by the Institute for the Development of Civil Society, an excellent Sudanese NGO and frequent USIP partner. The workshop focused on truth and reconciliation. Over two days, the 40 participants discussed ways of managing conflict in the state and reconciling with the past. They watched a documentary, produced by USIP, about reconciliation in countries such as South Africa, East Timor and Peru. Participants seemed especially interested in setting up a local version of a truth and reconciliation commission, proposing that it look into events going back to 1983, the start of the second round of Sudan’s civil war.
I also had a chance to talk with some of the participants individually, who helped me understand why Blue Nile remains relatively peaceful, but also that this impression is somewhat of a caricature. Several credit inter-marriage between ethnic groups for the stability. I also heard about the strength of traditional dispute resolution mechanisms involving elders and traditional leaders and resistance to government efforts to co-opt those mechanisms. The symbiotic relationship that has developed between sedentary farmers and nomadic and semi-nomadic herders was also mentioned.
But I also heard about tensions in the southern part of the state, around a town called Kurmuk, which is controlled by people perceived as southerners. There were complaints of insecurity and ineffective Joint Integrated Units, the military units created by the CPA that combine northern and southern troops but seem neither joint nor integrated. Some said that people perceived as northern were not welcome in Kurmuk and were being pushed further north. Also of concern, I encountered confusion over the process established by the CPA called Popular Consultation, in which the state legislatures in both Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan will, after the southern referendum, somehow ascertain the views of people of the two states of the CPA (the exact details and scope of this process remain vague, likely to be defined by legislation yet to be passed by the national legislature).
August 4th: Khartoum, Khartoum State
Khartoum is a massive city, a sharp contrast with every other part of the country I have been to – which is very much a source of grievance in Sudan. Luxury hotels dot the skyline, including one oblong-shaped hotel financed by Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, often referred to as "Qadaffi’s egg." Many of Sudan’s leaders and wealthy live a comfortable existence in Khartoum (though I was surprised when, in a meeting in the presidential complex, the power went off for half an hour). But poverty is almost constantly in sight, especially in the sprawling settlements surrounding the city largely inhabited by people from rural areas driven to Khartoum by the pull of opportunity or push of poverty and instability.
The talk of the town is today's trial of a female journalist, Lubna Hussein, who was one of 14 women arrested for wearing pants in public. She is fighting the charges in court, facing a possible punishment of 40 lashes with a whip. Her case has sparked debate within and outside Sudan, with many people planning to be at the courthouse today in her support. But this case is only part of a larger struggle in Sudan over the nature of the state and society, as elements of the current leadership attempt to move Sudan towards a more conservative Islamic orientation. The outcome of this struggle, in a country that straddles Africa and the Arab world, has enormous implications for Sudan’s citizens. It is a struggle that may not be resolved any time soon. And as it turned out, the trial was delayed for a second time.
I am in Khartoum to meet a broad array of the people who will shape Sudan's future, similar to my stop in Juba. This involves drinking many cups of fruit juice and tea (my Sudanese colleagues are constantly amused by my inability to drink hot liquids out of small glasses; I think Sudan needs more mugs). I arrived here the day after the U.S. special envoy to Sudan, General Scott Gration, testified to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about his strategy, which controversially includes engaging the government in Khartoum that is currently subject to U.S. sanctions and on the list of state sponsors of terrorism (though counter-terrorism cooperation between the U.S. and Sudan is widely acknowledged). Government officials in Khartoum are understandably pleased with this approach, while southern leaders worry about the U.S. losing leverage on Khartoum.
My meetings in Khartoum underlined how far apart the north and south are on many issues, especially contested census results and legislation setting the rules for the referendum. The spirit of the CPA was hard to find amidst the accusations flying back and forth between northern and southern politicians; many of these accusations involve the intentions of politicians and their parties and whether they are “unionist” or "separatist." But some of this may be posturing, and it is quite possible that deals could be struck amongst a small number of political elites.
As I pack for my flight this evening, I have little certainty about Sudan’s future other than this: while the U.S. and international community can play an important role in bridging the divides between the North and South, it is ultimately up to the Sudanese to find solutions to their myriad challenges.
