The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) is engaged in a variety of peacebuilding and conflict management efforts in many of the countries where these lesser-known risks are emerging. In a series of articles, the Institute examines some of these “sleeper risks” through the analytical lens of USIP experts.

Many of the clearest risks of conflict, violence and instability around the world have received widespread media attention. But a variety of other risks and threats have been smoldering quietly. They stem from long-developing trends or underappreciated political, economic or diplomatic factors, and some are spinning off from wider, existing conflicts or disputes.

The exploration of rising conflicts presented throughout this series isn’t meant to be definitive; nor does it represent an official USIP list. But the risks and threats being spotlighted suggest that there will be no shortage of attention-grabbing conflicts in 2013.

Read Features in This Series


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Until late October, the big questions about China’s role in the Ukraine conflict centered around whether Beijing would choose to expand its support for Russia to include lethal aid, or if it might engage in more active peacemaking to end the conflict. Then, on November 4, the Pentagon confirmed that North Korea sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia’s Kursk oblast, where Ukraine had captured some territory earlier this year. Days later, the State Department confirmed that North Korean soldiers had begun fighting Ukrainian troops.

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The Ukraine war is taking a new turn with the involvement of North Korean soldiers. Washington estimates that, so far, North Korea has sent approximately 10,000 troops to Russia — around 8,000 of whom have been deployed to the western region of Kursk, where Ukraine seized territory in a surprise attack earlier this year. And as U.S. officials predicted in late October, North Korean troops have reportedly begun engaging in direct combat.

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A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an extremely difficult military, complex operation. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been thinking seriously since the early 2000s about what such a landing would require. For over two decades, its force development efforts have been focused on the weapons, equipment, doctrine and operational concepts required to conquer the island in the face of full U.S. military intervention. The PLA has made considerable progress toward that goal and may deem itself fully capable by the 2027 force development target set by Xi Jinping.

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