U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Julie Mason: Keith Mines is the director for Latin America at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Keith, welcome back.

Keith Mines: Great. Thanks. It's good to be here. Thanks for the opportunity.

Julie Mason: So, Blinken, what was the purpose of that trip?

Keith Mines: Well, I would call this the reassurance trip. I think what he was really trying to do, he had a meeting in Lima with the OAS, which was pre-scheduled, but I think he added on a couple of other countries, in addition to Peru, Colombia, and Chile, with the idea that he would reassure countries that are moving to the left, that the United States respects that decision. He was very clear about this. We don't judge countries by where they are on the political spectrum, but by their respect for democracy, the rule of law and human rights. So, I think that was really the theme. The reassurance tour that you can go wherever you want, politically, socially, economically, and the United States will respect that and then still seek to work on the joint issues that we have. I think that was really the main message of the of the trip.

Julie Mason: We've heard from leaders in some of these countries that a little bit of bitterness that the U.S. has been so focused on, for example, the Middle East, or now Ukraine, and Europe.

Keith Mines: Yeah, I mean, there's always a sense that the U.S. is neglecting the hemisphere. But, I mean, if you add up the visits that have been made, the bilateral engagements, I think it actually adds up to more than some people are giving it credit for. But in this context, again, it was certainly, there was other issues [inaudible]. In fact, Ukraine came up during the OAS part of the visit. So there was, you know, there's a sense of helping to build global solidarity with Ukrainian president Zelensky offered a speech to the members of the OAS General Assembly, which was the last part of the visit. So, Ukraine did figure in it, but I think the other pieces of it were still fairly robust. And, again, the fact that it was three countries, then ending with this OAS meeting was, it was not nothing.

Julie Mason: How did these leaders talk about Venezuela among themselves?

Keith Mines: Yeah, Venezuela came up in the OAS meeting, and then in all the bilateral meetings. It's kind of at a turning point now, because it's coming up on four years of the Guaidó administration, that will be at four years in January. And it's kind of dragged on a couple of years beyond what it might have. So, there's some real kind of decision points. There's an opening, I think, for some creative approaches after the U.S. midterms in November, for some creative approaches to Venezuela. And of course, Venezuelan oil is not insignificant. It's not going to immediately pump up global oil supplies, but it's certainly a psychological message if it were back in the market. And I think the U.S. is certainly cognizant of the importance of Venezuelan oil globally. There was this release of prisoners by both sides a few weeks ago. That was kind of an effort of good faith, I think to reset some of what might come up. The hemisphere is, you know, again, I think is looking more than anything for a new approach to Venezuela. They were very strong in condemning the human rights abuses and the negatives of the Venezuelan regime. That was near universal among the OAS members. But it was also, you know, also the previous consensus of just adding more pressure and hoping for the best I think is breaking down and there's a desire for more creative policies.

Julie Mason: There was some interesting discussion in Bogota about America's ongoing war on drugs. A certain, I don't know how to describe it, but basically the leaders in Colombia were saying yeah, well your problem is fentanyl, not coke, so not our issue anymore.

Keith Mines: Well, it's a very broad issue that's been at the heart of so much of the relationship up until now that the reset in counternarcotics policy is going to be, it's going to take a lot of creativity and a lot of intense engagement. Again, I think the secretary's main message was that we can differ on policies [and] on approaches, we will respect your views and we'll work through them. So, the counternarcotics part of the Columbia visit was pretty upfront. The new Colombian government, if you saw the UNGA speech, the UN General Assembly speech by President Petro, [was] very strident about a new global approach to narcotics that we're just going about this wrong, even drawing in the environmental issues, which was interesting, but very, very strident about that. [He] does not want to see forced eradication anymore. He'd like to see crop substitution as the way out there, decriminalization of the softer drugs, almost universally, again, a focus on the environmental issues that come along with narcotics policies.

So, a lot of different [and] a lot of new approaches. The U.S., I think, is open to that. Certainly, this administration has its own different approach, but there are going to be limits to how far and how fast it can go. Extradition is going to be another key thing. It's been a real part of the counternarcotics cooperation for a long time with the U.S. ability to extradite drug kingpins to the United States where they can be tried and incarcerated in ways that may not work out in Colombia. So, there's a number of issues to work through. I think it was, again, it was very upfront, very open, but I think the secretary was again saying we can disagree, we'll work through the issues. But we still value a strong relationship with Colombia, which has been really probably our closest ally in the hemisphere for the last two decades.

Julie Mason: Keith, the subject of Cuba also came up a few times for Blinken. And I confess, I've been a little surprised that the Biden administration hasn't done much there.

Keith Mines: Yeah, Cuba comes up. It was kind of in the context, this time, of Nicaragua and Venezuela. And there was a kind of a condemnation of the, you know, the authoritarian regimes of the hemisphere. I don't think the administration, domestically has the bandwidth, has the ability, certainly not until after the midterms, to do anything creative on Cuba the way it did last time. So, I think Cuba is in a bit of a holding pattern. Cuban migrants are way up. This is the other issue that came up across a lot of the meetings, and certainly at the OAS, was the issue of migration. And Cuba is one of the top three countries now for migration. So, you know, a desire to fix some of the short-term things, as well as the longer term, but I think Cuba, yeah, again, I think [is in] a bit of a holding pattern. The Biden administration got beat up pretty hard, domestically on some of its Cuba policies. So, I think that's one that'll have to wait.

Julie Mason: Keith Mines, director of the Latin America programs at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Keith, thank you so much.

Keith Mines: Thank you. Great to be here.

Julie Mason: Have a great day.