U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: The U.S. government personnel have been evacuated from Sudan. Amid the violence, the embassy has now been shuttered. We heard from Senator Chris Coons earlier on Face the Nation about the Sudan embassy evacuation. But even more there has been conversations surrounding what's happening. And one of the things that he said was that Sudan warring factions will fight to the finish. "This is a country that for 30 years was under the brutal dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir. It was on the state sponsor of terrorism list, we don't have a deep relationship with the Sudanese military, or with the paramilitary force the RSF. We have some leverage in that we provide development assistance, humanitarian relief, but frankly, these two warring factions have started what may well be a fight to the finish. And we may have limited leverage in the next couple of weeks and months as they carry out a fight to see who will ultimately be in control of the security of Sudan." Joining me now to talk more about this is the director of Africa programs at the United States Institute of Peace, Susan Stigant, welcome to the program. How are you?

Susan Stigant: Thanks for having me on. I'm fine. Thanks.

Laura Coates: I'm glad that you're joining us. Help us to better understand a little bit of the context and the history of why this conflict and why now?

Susan Stigant: Well, the fighting broke out a week ago, Saturday between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. These two security entities were actually working together in partnership, they had collectively overthrown the civilian government back in October of 2021 and negotiations have been happening over the last 18 months to figure out a pathway back towards a civilian government. Progress had been made in some ways, but over the last month and a half, it became clear that the core questions about the structure of the security sector, the integration of these forces, who would be in charge, and what powers the different security leaders would have in a new dispensation, a new government, this was really at the core of the conflict. And 10 days ago, we saw this, saw very clearly that the security leaders didn't have confidence in the political process and they're now in a logic where they believe that the show of force and violence is the best way to get the best deal for themselves.

Laura Coates: Do you foresee, I mean, the fact this has been a week long already of the heavy fighting, and there has been hundreds, at least of deaths and a suspension of our embassy and the evacuation of personnel and their families. Do you have a sense of what will change course?

Susan Stigant: It's a very worrying situation because the fighting has been in the capital, as well as other urban centers, civilians have been caught in the middle of this fighting. People haven't had electricity, they haven't had water, they haven't had access to basic services. And so, I'm deeply concerned about the humanitarian crisis that is developing. We've seen tens of thousands of people trying to move to safety. And the pressure on the areas where they're moving to inside and outside of the country is soon going to become unbearable for those communities. And I think in the medium term, we know, that the United States and its partners, was able to exercise the leverage to allow safe passage of the U.S. embassy staff. And I think that's the type of engagement that's needed to get a halt to the fighting so that these urgent humanitarian issues can be addressed.

Laura Coates: So, there's a power struggle obviously at the center of the fighting. I mean, the Rapid Support Force I think you said, they have a pretty controversial past. Is that right?

Susan Stigant: They do, yes. Many of your listeners may remember that during the genocide in Darfur, there was a force called the Janjaweed. And the Rapid Support Forces sort of grew out of that same force and became a legalized paramilitary group that has really developed incredible power and strength not just in terms of its military reach, but also its business holdings, primarily by the head of the RSF, General Hemedti, as well as its role in both leading regional relations and some of the international relations. So, it's an incredibly powerful grouping and I think perhaps underestimated in terms of its ability to shape the outcome of what things will look like in Sudan.

Laura Coates: In terms of these two rival groups and rival leaders who are battling for power, do you get a sense of are these quite distinct in terms of their approaches? Is there one that the United States and other of our allies are going to support, have support, will back in the future?

Susan Stigant: I think it's a very good question. And I'm worried that we might get caught in the trap that we're trying to choose between one over the other. At the end of the day, there's a third voice here, and that is civilians and Sudanese people. And there are political leaders, there's incredible organization in communities that is really the response right now, that's providing assistance to citizens. And so, I would be cautious about trying to pick one over the other because both have shown that they don't have commitment to political dialogue to peaceful means. So, the first priority is to really silence those guns. But to remember that there's a different frame and a different approach to thinking about the future political dispensation in Sudan.

Laura Coates: Who is supporting the idea of having these conflicts and having the power and the arms and the mic to be able to do so? Are there other countries supporting one side or the other?

Susan Stigant: Something we're watching really closely is how some of the neighboring countries engage, particularly over the coming days when both the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces will start to run short of supplies. So, historically Egypt has been very close to the Sudan Armed Forces. There's public articles talking about the Rapid Support Forces relationships with other countries in the region. And I think that really the message to neighbors from the United States, but also from leaders in Africa, needs to be stay out, don't respond and resupply, ensure that there is a serious way to stop the violence and address this serious humanitarian catastrophe.

Laura Coates: I know that Egypt, I believe, and South Sudan have even offered to mediate but obviously it's not been successful at this juncture. What should the United States' policy be? I mean, it's obviously hard to dictate with all the nuance you've spoken about today. But what will be the most impactful by the United States government here, anything?

Susan Stigant: Well, I think the first priority is to move as quickly as possible to provide support to the humanitarian response. And so, right now, there's a bit of a logic of everybody's running away from the crisis for safety. At the same time, there is mobilization, I think, further mobilization, to get humanitarian resources, medical supplies, food, water, into Sudan, and the United States plays an important role in that. And then I think the second is to really end the fighting, and to do so in a way that ensures that Sudanese citizens and civilians are centered. Sometimes we create the impression that people have to pick one side or the other. And I think there's an important third way in this discussion.

Laura Coates: The humanitarian efforts and crisis here, just unbelievable to think about and we don't even know, I suspect, the full scope of what is happening at this juncture.