U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Well, let's travel down to Latin America for a moment with Dr. Mary Speck, a senior expert for the Latin America program for the United States Institute of Peace. She was previously the executive director of the Western Hemisphere Drug Policy Commission, which is an independent bipartisan entity created by Congress to evaluate Counter Narcotics policies in the Americas, and also to provide practical recommendations on how to both reduce the availability of illicit drugs and also minimize the damage associated with drug trafficking. She's with the Latin America program for the USIP now. And she joins us, Dr. Mary Speck, welcome back. How are you?

Mary Speck: I'm very well, thank you. Thank you so much for having me.

Laura Coates: Well, let's talk about what has been going on, we're focusing always on our own presidential election race here in the United States in November. But there's an inauguration of Guatemala's new president, from January 15. Although this has finally happened. Now, he faced some pretty huge challenges after being sworn in as Guatemala's president. Talk to us a little bit about the region in particular as to why there is relevance to the American voter.

Mary Speck: Well, Guatemala is the largest economy and population in Central America. And of course, it's also a major source of migration to the United States. Statistically it's actually a middle-income country, but it has vast inequality. And so, the rural areas in many of the urban areas are very poor. And these are areas where there's a lot of unemployment and a lot of despair, and a lot of criminal violence. So, it sends migrants to the United States constantly, streams of migrants to the United States. It's also a transit area for illicit drugs to come from South America toward the United States. So, the problems of Guatemala end up on our doorstep, it is vital to U.S. security.

Laura Coates: That's really important to get that perspective and the background there as well. And so, this new president, what do we know about him and his policies?

Mary Speck: Well, he had a very troubled, it was it was a challenge for him to reach the presidency, because there was a lot of opposition on the part of the establishment, so to speak, against his presidency, because he's made combating corruption the centerpiece of his campaign. And now his government. He's a former diplomat, worked in peace building around the world. And he was also the son of a former president, the first democratically elected president that Guatemala had in the 1940s. But he's been a kind of outsider in Guatemalan politics. And he wasn't expected to win. And so, the outgoing government and the courts mounted a campaign to try to prevent him from taking office.

Laura Coates: When you look at the campaign against him to not take office, there's been a delay then in his ability to be inaugurated, what has been the impact for that to happen and how serious were these efforts to derail this inauguration? Did it turn violent?

Mary Speck: Well, it didn't turn violent. But this is a country where the judiciary has been weaponized, so to speak against the performers in general. So, there were charges as soon as he won or qualified for the second round. They immediately drummed up charges against his party, suspended his party, charges against there were rumors that they were going to arrest his vice president. So, this was a serious campaign to prevent him from taking office. It failed for two basic reasons. One, the U.S. just had a barrage of hundreds of sanctions against members of Congress and members of the judiciary, who accusations of corruption and trying to undermine democracy. Plus, and more importantly, I think, massive demonstrations in Guatemala along with the basic opposition, of members of the business community who didn't necessarily support at Arévalo, but who didn't want instability in Guatemala.

Laura Coates: So, when you look at that, especially the judiciary and where things are going. We are so used to discussions around about checks and balances and having these separate three co-equal branches of government in the United States. When it comes to judiciary in Guatemala, do they have a similar structure politically?

Mary Speck: Well, they do. Formally, it is an independent judiciary, and the Attorney General has a great deal of independence and can in fact, not be fired by the President. So, Arévalo will have the same attorney general who was out to get him so to speak, in office as president. But it has been used for political purposes, the judiciary, Guatemala has gone back and forth from a very aggressively anti-corruption, judiciary, under a U.N. sponsored special commission that was designed to combat corruption in the country. And so, they went against they had a lot of high-profile corruption investigations, including against the former president. But now it's swung the other way. So unfortunately, what you have is the judiciary that is now widely discredited, because it seems to be used more to get after political foes than to seek justice. There's a cycle of retaliatory prosecutions going on, which is very, very disturbing and very dangerous.

Laura Coates: In his inauguration speech, he acknowledged the country's large indigenous population, I understand, citing, quote, "Historic debts that we must resolve," I understand that they're about 40% of Guatemalan's belong to one of about two dozen indigenous groups, and they are generally poor and have less access to services of all kinds. What was the meaning behind and how meaningful was it for him to address it this way?

Mary Speck: Well, as I mentioned, Arévalo has a debt to the indigenous community. They spearheaded the this is a community that has been marginalized politically, socially and economically for centuries. But they actually did come out and spearheaded the protests to ensure that he could be inaugurated take power. So, he does have a political debt to them. But he's, I think, referring more generally to the debt that the entire society has to the indigenous people because the rates of poverty are, are astonishing. Guatemala has the highest rates in many rural communities, the majority of children are malnourished. And this isn't a country which is I said, it's a middle-income country. It's had a fairly strong economy. It has a very wealthy upper classes and a large middle class, but the poverty in indigenous communities is at, you know, levels that we see in maybe Sub-Saharan Africa. They're, they're very, extremely high for a country that is not among the poorest in the world.

Laura Coates: And now, how involved is the United States in discussing what's happening, the Secretary of State Antony Blinken has issued a statement surrounding him applauding the Guatemalan people for advancing the cause of democracy under challenging circumstances. And he went on to say, "We also commend Guatemala's institutions, civil society and the international community, for safeguarding electoral integrity, voting systems and processes." Obviously, all eyes are on our own elections about whether they are free and fair and universally accepted as so, even when even with evidence to suggest that we do have, and to confirm that we do have free and fair elections. What is the United States involvement from here, just watching and observing?

Mary Speck: Well, we do provide substantial aid to Central America, we have for a long time for the reasons I mentioned, because it's a source of migration. And because it's also these weak governments, unemployed people are used by drug traffickers. It's a major transit point. So, we have a real interest and so we have supported the aid to Central America under various programs under various presidencies. But in addition, Guatemala now is, there's a great deal of hope that Arévalo can show that democracy actually works. In the rest of Northern Central America, which is the poorest part of Central America was the part that sends most migrants to the United States. Democracy is not in very great shape. In neighboring El Salvador, you have a president who is running for reelection, despite constitutional prohibitions and who has put tens of thousands of suspected gang members in jail without due process. And in Honduras, you have a leftist government, which is increasingly unpopular, which has been engaged in heightened rhetoric both against the United States and the press and civil society. So, there's a lot at stake in Guatemala. If Arévalo can succeed, and if he can succeed using democratic means as an institutionalist, as a moderate, he's very much a centrist, then that could have implications for Central America and frankly, for Latin America in general.

Laura Coates: So important to hear your perspective and to give us all the information we really need to be prepared on this conversation, Dr. Mary Speck, always a pleasure to lean on your expertise. Thanks for joining us today.

Mary Speck: Well, thank you so much.