KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
As global energy demands intensify and the urgency of addressing climate shocks mounts, the role of nuclear energy has come to the forefront of discussions for governments, businesses and those concerned about sustainable development. Just last week, the Biden administration released a plan to triple U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050. While nuclear energy promises efficiency gains and significant emissions reductions, public opinion remains divided about the tradeoffs of increased investment, the safety risks and the implications for international security. This puts the U.S. at a crossroads as it tries to navigate its role in a world with new demands for nuclear energy and heightened risks of conflict between nuclear-armed states. Such risks were highlighted this week when Russia lowered its nuclear threshold in response to new U.S. authorizations for Ukraine to use long-range weapons.
How can the U.S. — and the world — balance the need for greater, green energy sources with concerns over nuclear weapons? Today’s proliferation challenges require strengthening multilateral frameworks that govern the future of advanced nuclear energy technologies. The international community needs to move beyond what is currently an ad hoc approach. Promoting nuclear energy development alongside robust multilateral non-proliferation frameworks — what we call a “both-and” approach — could encourage international cooperation on breakthrough technologies that mitigate risks and also align with renewed arms control and non-proliferation goals.
International institutions like the Nuclear Energy Agency, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and International Energy Agency (IEA) all emphasize nuclear energy’s key role in achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and meeting rising electricity demands. Nuclear energy offers zero carbon baseload power that can be integrated with other energy sources including renewables. This baseload power can support energy-intensive activities like desalination and advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). When these technologies rely on fossil fuels, the emissions footprint is massive. For example, AI’s rapid expansion is significantly increasing energy consumption, with data centers in the U.S. projected to double their electricity use by 2030.
As countries around the world evaluate their energy security and net zero goals, decisions to pursue nuclear power are top of mind. For example, Kazakhstan recently held a referendum to decide whether to build a nuclear power plant, which passed with significant support. Kazakhstan is a leading producer of uranium; struggles with providing access to clean, reliable energy despite low energy prices; and has a fraught nuclear history due to Soviet weapons testing on its territory. While there were critiques of the referendum, public opinion seems to signal that improving energy access and reliability to cleaner alternatives outweighed potential concerns for most Kazakhs. The IEA’s 2023 World Energy Outlook projects that while the share of nuclear in the energy mix will remain steady through 2050, overall capacity will grow, especially in China, India and other developing economies.
Nuclear energy is not necessarily a slam dunk solution for developing countries. There are significant barriers that might not make this pursuit worthwhile as part of the energy transition. Nuclear energy is not always economically or socially preferrable to other renewable energy sources that can be more cost effective. In addition, there are concerns about the safety and security risks, particularly in countries facing conflict or that have governance challenges. There are important social, political and environmental dynamics associated with all energy decisions that necessitate robust participatory processes — both locally and multilaterally — to understand priorities, opportunities and tradeoffs.
If nuclear energy is to have a viable, expanded global footprint then U.S. leadership guided by a coherent nuclear energy posture is essential. Such a posture could potentially strengthen multilateral cooperation and address the critical gaps that exist within those frameworks. In addition, it could strengthen partnerships with interested countries that might otherwise turn to China or Russia to support nuclear energy development. However, the pursuit of nuclear energy must take into account the potential connection to nuclear weapons programs and the implications for nuclear arms control cannot be ignored.
Nuclear energy and nuclear weapons programs have long been linked in international security circles. Several states have leveraged nuclear energy programs to mask or support nuclear weapons development. Both India's and North Korea's nuclear weapons programs originated from their civilian nuclear energy initiatives. Today the concern remains that malign, or particularly ambitious, states can pursue energy programs with hidden intentions for nuclear weapons, particularly in a context of weak international controls. Yet, nuclear programs like those in Japan and South Korea demonstrate the possibility of maintaining advanced nuclear energy capability without weapons development. While links between civilian nuclear energy and weapons programs certainly exist, the pathway is not clear or predetermined.
Today the concern remains that malign, or particularly ambitious, states can pursue energy programs with hidden intentions for nuclear weapons.
Current projections for nuclear energy capacity focus on large-scale reactors, but there is increasing interest in advanced technologies that offer smaller footprints and reduced risks. These designs use less fuel and offer features that limit proliferation risks and provide flexibility for meeting diverse energy needs. Small and micro reactors, however, are still in development or early demonstration stages. In addition, the features that make small and micro reactors appealing can also make monitoring them more challenging and their modularity makes transboundary cooperation and clear liability frameworks essential to ensure all parties are operating under the same expectations.
The shift toward smaller-scale infrastructure coupled with sufficient transparency and safeguards are necessary for increasing nuclear energy capacity while also limiting the potential for weapons proliferation. Small and micro nuclear reactors are not excluded from existing international legal frameworks but there are differences with these designs and traditional nuclear power plants that leave gaps and ambiguity in these existing agreements. This requires updates to multilateral agreements to facilitate the shift toward effective deployment of smaller reactors. These updates can ensure that there are clear processes and standards for developing and distributing technology, building capacity and reporting.
As more countries seek nuclear energy, broader participation in decision-making could lead to important breakthroughs in cooperation.
However, international discussions about nuclear energy expansion and non-proliferation are particularly thorny. Countries with existing nuclear capacity are hesitant to update legal frameworks, which creates a fragmented regulatory landscape. This makes it harder to ensure safeguards and transparency. As more countries seek nuclear energy, broader participation in decision-making could lead to important breakthroughs in cooperation.
A set of internationally agreed guidelines for deploying nuclear energy should be developed. For example, during COP28 a report was launched outlining six dimensions for successful deployment in countries looking to establish nuclear energy programs. Strengthening international cooperation on safe and secure nuclear energy development is important, especially as current climate pledges are not doing enough to reduce global emissions.
The ultimate path to ensuring public confidence and global security lies in multilateralism, which is essential for regulating the civilian use of nuclear energy and revitalizing weakening nuclear arms control regimes. The IAEA enforces "safeguards" to ensure that nuclear facilities and materials are used solely for peaceful purposes and not diverted for military use. International cooperation with and support for the IAEA should not only continue but be significantly increased, particularly to address the regulatory gaps posed by emerging nuclear technologies like small and micro reactors. As innovation drives the spread of advanced nuclear capabilities, the IAEA must adapt its safeguards to ensure that new nuclear technologies are deployed safely and securely, preventing proliferation while fostering international cooperation on energy solutions.
At the same time strengthening and reviving other multilateral approaches to nuclear arms control will help states work together to balance the opportunities for nuclear energy with the imperative to prevent nuclear weapons proliferation. This is especially vital for the vast majority of non-nuclear armed nations, which will have a great interest in developing nuclear power capacity. The Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) remains the cornerstone of global non-proliferation efforts as the only binding commitment in a multilateral treaty requiring nuclear-armed states to disarmament and promoting peaceful nuclear cooperation. However, the five-year process that assesses the implementation of NPT provisions and makes recommendations to strengthen the treaty has recently struggled to achieve substantive outcomes, highlighting the challenges of keeping the NPT relevant in a changing world.
Beyond the NPT, key agreements between the U.S. and Russia have historically played a significant role in arms control. However, the suspension of Russia's participation in New START in 2023 has placed strategic arms reduction in jeopardy. Additionally, China’s reluctance to engage in arms control negotiations further complicates the global nuclear landscape, especially with estimates suggesting it could double its 500 warheads by 2030. Meanwhile, Russia and China have strengthened their bilateral cooperation in nuclear energy and are leading the worldwide dissemination of nuclear energy technology and capacity building, using nuclear energy as a key lever of geopolitical influence.
However, there is recognition that stronger multilateral nuclear engagement is needed. The Pact for the Future, adopted at the 79th U.N. General Assembly, offers a renewed commitment to disarmament and non-proliferation. It calls for stronger multilateral efforts, especially in the Global South, to ensure that nuclear energy development proceeds safely while reinforcing global security frameworks. Although the pact is a promising step, much more is needed to turn this commitment into concrete progress on nuclear arms control.
To move forward, world leaders should initiate a new series of multilateral negotiations that include emerging nuclear powers and focus on updating verification mechanisms and compliance frameworks for modern nuclear technologies. By building on the pact and fostering open dialogue, there is hope for revitalized cooperation that strengthens global security and paves the way for a safe expansion of nuclear energy.
Last year at COP28, 25 countries, including the U.S., signed a declaration to triple nuclear energy by 2050, committing to "supporting responsible nations" in deploying nuclear power with high standards for safety, sustainability and non-proliferation. The declaration also emphasized the need for financing, resilient supply chains and innovation. COP29 is building on this momentum. Six more countries signed the declaration alongside other announcements around capacity building, public-private partnerships, and research cooperation. The challenge now lies in turning these commitments into action.
The development of nuclear energy is inevitable as global energy demands increase and the need for low-emission solutions becomes more urgent. However, to harness this powerful technology responsibly, a careful, managed approach is needed, one that balances the benefits of nuclear energy with the critical need for arms control.
Public attitudes toward nuclear energy are strongly influenced by perceptions of nuclear weapons, with concerns about nuclear arms often leading to skepticism toward civilian nuclear power. Survey experiments reveal that public support for or opposition to nuclear energy can shift significantly based on these associations. This complex psychological link suggests that policymakers need to consider public concerns about nuclear weapons when communicating nuclear energy policies. U.S. policymakers should pursue a dual commitment to energy development and security frameworks to foster a more informed and supportive public stance on nuclear energy.
Given the bipartisan consensus on nuclear issues, there is a unique opportunity for the United States to pursue international cooperation with states like China and Russia. Multilateral cooperation will be key to ensuring that nuclear energy can meet the world’s energy needs while preventing nuclear weapons proliferation. By investing in robust international frameworks, strengthening safeguards and fostering inclusive dialogue, the international community can ensure that nuclear energy is developed in a way that promotes environmental sustainability and global security. Finally, effectively communicating a "both-and" approach is essential for building public confidence.