With Sudan's January 2011 referendum on independence for southern Sudan fast approaching, USIP hosted three workshops in April and May 2009 to develop scenarios focused on plausible developments over a two and a half year period.  Participants explored underlying forces and trends and the uncertainties related to their development and effects in order to anticipate the obstacles and opportunities for preventing political violence in Sudan through 2011. The resulting scenarios represent only a slice of the wide array of potential outcomes, but provided USIP with valuable considerations to provoke further discussion of the key driving forces and strategies for preventing violence.

Scenarios for Sudan: Avoiding Political Violence Through 2011
August 2009 | Special Report by Alan Schwartz

This report summarizes three workshops designed to explore opportunities to avoid political violence in Sudan through the end of 2011. Workshop participants found the more political violence will be hard to avoid in Sudan, barring a quick change in current trends. Much of the outcome hinges on the handling of issues that involve the 2011 referendum on whether the South secedes from Sudan.  Moreover, the lack of governance capacity in the South and failure to resolve tensions between the North and South are two major factors that could lead to future conflict if they are not addressed before the referendum. The report runs through three scenarios for possible outcomes – a costly secession; civil war, from tinderbox to conflagration; and muddling through -- and recommends ways Sudan and international community can work to avoid such political violence in the coming years.

Negotiating Sudan's Post-Referendum Arrangements
January 2010 | Peace Brief by Jon Temin

Sudan is less than one year away from a landmark event: the referendum on whether Southern Sudan will remain part of a united Sudan or secede. Southerners are likely to vote to secede, but who will orchestrate this probably divorce and how remain central questions.  Temin prescribes that the international community encourage and support negotiations on post-referendum arrangements, which include issues ranging from wealth sharing to citizenship rights to security arrangements. Good coordination among the international community will be essential.  He advocates for a single mediator with a clear and strong mandate should lead negotiations on postreferendum arrangements, supported by a contact group or group of friends that can insert targeted pressures and incentives into the process.

Scenarios for Sudan's Future, Revisited
August 2010 | Peace Brief by Jon Temin and JaÏr van der Lijn

Many of the post-referendum scenarios in Sudan envisioned by the U.S. Institute of Peace and Clingendael Institute one year ago remain plausible today, less than six months prior to the referendum. While recent progress on post-referendum arrangements is encouraging, a return to a North-South civil war is possible, and there is reason to be concerned about the stability of both states if the outcome of the referendum is secession. As the referendum approaches, it will be important for the South to develop a stronger sense of cohesion and common purpose given the uncertain and unprecedented environment following the vote.

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