Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
China, Philippines Tensions Risk Wider Conflict that Could Draw in the U.S.
In yet another act of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel employed a water cannon last weekend to redirect an unarmed Philippines Navy supply boat. The incident took place in disputed waters near the Second Thomas Shoal. China claims the shoal and nearly all of the South China Sea as its own, but an international court has said both the shoal and surrounding waters belong to the Philippines.
How Russia’s Military Bloggers Shape the Course of Putin’s War
Russian President Vladimir Putin relies on the manipulation of media narratives and limiting access to information to maintain popular support and acceptance of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Amid Taliban Repression, Afghan Media Are a Beacon of Hope
Since regaining power two years ago, the Taliban have largely discarded Afghanistan’s democratic institutions but have taken a somewhat accommodating, albeit contradictory, approach toward independent media. Instead of a banning independent media altogether, they have implemented regulatory restrictions and punitive measures to limit free speech and control the media environment. This policy approach seems to be part of an evolving communication strategy that helped enable the group’s rise to power. Despite all the bad news coming out of Afghanistan, resilient, creative journalists and media outlets provide reason for some guarded optimism. The international community should do what it can to support the media sector, which is essential for advocating for citizen rights and providing an information lifeline to Afghans.
Pakistan’s Parliamentary Period Ends as Election Uncertainty Looms
A five-year parliamentary term just concluded in Pakistan, marking the third such term since the country's 2008 transition from military rule. These past five years were marred by domestic political tumult and an outsized — at times decisive — military role in politics. During this period, Pakistan witnessed two ruling coalitions with different prime ministers: the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and allied parties from August 2018 to April 2022, followed by the Shehbaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and allies from April 2022 until this week. Top political leaders also faced legal issues — most recently, Khan was convicted for illegally selling state gifts and disqualified from contesting the election.
Indian Ocean Basing and Access: How Smaller States Navigate Major Power Competition
In late July, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe traveled to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The trip addressed several important issues, such as greater connectivity. However, there was one item on the agenda that did not receive much media attention despite its potential impact on Indian Ocean regional security: Sri Lanka’s new standard operating procedure (SOP) to determine which military and non-military ships and aircraft may visit the country.
How to Respond to Niger’s Coup — and Prevent the Next One
Military officers in Niger are rushing to consolidate the power they seized 15 days ago, while West Africa’s elected governments and regional institutions are seeking ways to reverse the July 27 coup d’état. Niger’s coup seems a particular setback for democracy, completing a six-nation belt of military regimes across Africa’s Sahel region. Amid this uncertain power struggle, how can the world support Africans’ demonstrated demand for elected, democratic governance that meets their peoples’ needs? We should begin by hewing to several basic principles. One is to keep our responses to coups coherent — but not uniform. Niger’s coup is distinct; our response must be as well.
Two Years into Taliban Rule, New Shocks Weaken Afghan Economy
The Taliban have done a better job than expected in managing the Afghan economy despite some missteps. But nevertheless, the Afghan economy seems caught in a low-level equilibrium that leaves most Afghans poor, hungry and in need of humanitarian assistance. Moreover, new headwinds threaten to precipitate further economic decline, risking a repeat of the economic free-fall seen in the initial months following the August 2021 Taliban takeover. Much will depend on whether aid declines sharply or gradually, how seriously the opium ban is enforced for a second year during this fall’s planting season, and whether Taliban gender restrictions are tightened, maintained or weakened.
West Africa’s Leaders Face the High Stakes of Niger’s Coup
Amid the global challenges to building international stability and peace, a crisis increasingly forcing itself to the foreground — even amid those of record human displacement, climate degradation and unresolved wars — is the plunge by six countries across Africa’s Sahel region into coups d’état and military rule. Eight coups since 2020 have left 150 million people under rule by their armed forces. The latest coup, in Niger, is drawing a heightened international response, and a key player, the 15-nation West African community, today that it will pursue a long campaign of economic and diplomatic pressure, and that it sees military force as a last resort.
Is Myanmar’s Junta Turning a Corner?
Are conciliatory winds stirring among the leaders of Myanmar’s coup regime, or is the junta engaging in deception and distraction as it struggles on the battlefield against a broad range of resistance forces? The answer is almost certainly the latter. It would not be the first time the ruling generals have sought to stimulate international interest in promoting dialogue solely to enhance their legitimacy abroad.
Bangladesh: Survey Reveals Premier Remains Popular Despite Growing Public Discontent
Political tension is rising in Bangladesh ahead of the country’s next round of national elections, due by January 2024. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is boycotting elections to extract concessions from the government on election management; rampant inflation is increasing citizens’ daily struggles; and both the BNP and ruling Awami League (AL) are holding large rallies across the country to mobilize their supporters. Yet in this tumultuous political scenario, there is little publicly available polling to understand the state of race.