Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Venezuela’s Election Outcome Isn’t a Done Deal Just Yet
With less than two months before Venezuela’s presidential election, President Nicolas Maduro faces a stark choice. Should he be beaten at the polls, as opinion surveys suggest he will be, Maduro could concede defeat and negotiate a transfer of power with safeguards against legal persecution. Or he could try to steal or invalidate the election. Most observers assume Maduro will opt for the latter, but doing so could put him at even greater personal risk.
El Resultado de las Elecciones en Venezuela Aún No Está Decidido
Con menos de dos meses para las elecciones presidenciales en Venezuela, el presidente Nicolás Maduro enfrenta una decisión crucial. Si es derrotado en las urnas, como sugieren las encuestas, Maduro podría aceptar la derrota y negociar un traspaso de poder con protecciones contra persecución legal. O podría intentar robarse o invalidar la elección. La mayoría de los observadores asumen que Maduro optará por lo último, pero hacerlo podría ponerlo en un riesgo personal aún mayor.
Is Mexico’s Historic Election an Opportunity to Reset Cooperation with the U.S.?
On June 2, Mexicans elected former Mexico City mayor and governing party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum as their next president. With a compelling electoral mandate, as well as a qualified majority in Congress, Sheinbaum has vowed to continue her predecessor’s “Fourth Transformation” project, focused on reducing poverty, combatting corruption and promoting social justice and equal income distribution under a strengthened state. Amid this mix of continuity and change, the United States may have an opportunity to rebuild the two countries’ frayed cooperation on security and violence reduction, one of Sheinbaum’s priorities and something that will be impossible for her to achieve without close cooperation with the United States.
¿Es la histórica elección de México una oportunidad para reiniciar la cooperación con los Estados Unidos?
El 2 de junio, los mexicanos eligieron a la ex alcaldesa de la Ciudad de México y candidata del partido gobernante, Claudia Sheinbaum, como su próxima presidenta. Con un mandato electoral contundente, así como con una mayoría calificada en el Congreso, Sheinbaum ha prometido continuar el proyecto de la “Cuarta Transformación” de su predecesor, enfocado en reducir la pobreza, combatir la corrupción, promover la justicia social y lograr una distribución equitativa del ingreso bajo un estado fortalecido. En medio de esta mezcla de continuidad y cambio, Estados Unidos podría tener una oportunidad para reconstruir la deteriorada cooperación entre ambos países en materia de seguridad y reducción de la violencia, una de las prioridades de Sheinbaum y algo que será imposible de lograr sin una estrecha cooperación con Estados Unidos.
Three Troubling Takeaways on U.S.-China Relations from the Shangri La Dialogue
The recently concluded 2024 Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore provided another useful opportunity for senior U.S. and Chinese national security officials to engage in face-to-face bilateral discussions and interact with officials and experts from other states. While these engagements have value in theory, they highlight three persistent problems in the practice of U.S.-China relations. First, the United States and China tend to talk past each other. Second, the United States and China have dissimilar systems, which makes identifying and engaging with appropriate counterpart officials very difficult. Third, the United States and China possess fundamentally different understandings about the role of third countries in managing confrontation and mitigating conflict.
Keith Mines on the Latest from Haiti
While Haiti’s Transitional Council has appointed a prime minister to lead a temporary government and the Kenyan-led international security mission is expected to deploy soon, “[Haiti’s] gangs are still pretty strong,” says USIP’s Keith Mines. “There’s really going to be a fight for power … over the coming months.”
After India’s Surprising Elections, What’s Next for Modi’s Foreign Policy?
Widely expected to cruise to a third-straight majority in India’s parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) instead lost ground and must now rely on its National Democratic Alliance partners, especially the Janata Dal (United) party and the Telugu Desam Party, to form a coalition government. While the stunning results will have immediate consequences for Modi’s domestic agenda, foreign and national security policies are not top priorities for India’s new parliament. Still, the political changes associated with coalition rule and the BJP’s unanticipated electoral setback could affect India’s international relationships in important ways.
Moldova: As Russia Fuels Conflict, Could Churches Build Peace?
Russia’s escalating campaign to block Moldova from joining the European Union reflects a weakening in Eastern Europe of a longstanding Russian lever of regional influence: its Orthodox church. A number of Moldovan Orthodox priests and parishes are campaigning to withdraw their nation’s churches from two centuries of formal subordination to Russia’s church, and Moldova’s senior prelate has bluntly condemned his superior, the Russian Orthodox Church patriarch, for supporting Moscow’s war on Ukraine. As conflict escalates this year over Moldova’s future, advocates of European democracy and stability might strengthen both by supporting dialogue to reduce conflict between Moldova’s historically Russia-linked church and its smaller rival, subordinate to the Orthodox hierarchy in neighboring Romania.
Taiwan’s New President Faces Tensions with China and Domestic Division
Over four months after winning Taiwan’s presidential election, William Lai Ching-te from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officially took office on May 20. Beijing fiercely criticized Lai’s inaugural address and conducted military drills and patrols around Taiwan in a bid to “punish” Lai for failing to heed China’s preferred positions. In the days following the speech, Lai also faced challenges at home, as opposition parties in Taiwan’s legislature passed a set of reform bills that critics warn could increase China’s ability to interfere in Taiwan’s domestic affairs.
Argentina’s Milei Wants ‘Reconciliation’ with the Military
On March 24, Argentina’s presidency released a video aimed at providing what it called a “complete” vision of the country’s “National Day of Memory for Truth and Justice,” an annual holiday held on the anniversary of the 1976 coup d’etat that established the military regime that ruled the country until 1983.