Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Russia’s Ukraine War Could Offer Chance to Resolve South Caucasus Conflicts
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world’s attention has been justly focused on the war and the devastation inflicted on Ukrainian civilians. However, as the war drags on — and becomes ever more costly to Russia — policymakers in the United States and Europe must pay increasing attention to other areas where the diminution of Russia’s military reputation may upset local balances of power.
Russia’s Ukraine War Weighs Heavily on Tajikistan
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has left the five republics of Central Asia in a bind, but none more so than Tajikistan, a fragile country that depends on Russian troops and remittances for stability. As former Soviet republics, Central Asian states all enjoy special relations with Moscow and are considered traditional allies of the Russian Federation. The invasion of Ukraine — another former Soviet republic — raises urgent questions for Tajikistan about how to meet Russian expectations of support from Dushanbe in the face of global outrage and condemnation.
Lauren Baillie on Accountability for Atrocities in Ukraine
Amid ongoing revelations of atrocities committed against Ukrainians at the hands of Russian forces, USIP’s Lauren Baillie says efforts to investigate and prosecute these crimes will require creativity and “the ability to think more broadly about how we bring perpetrators to justice and recognize the unique needs of victims.”
Pakistan’s Twin Taliban Problem
Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban are teetering on the brink of a major crisis. Since coming into power, the Taliban has defied Pakistan — its main state benefactor during the insurgency against the United States military and the deposed Afghan government. It has done so by challenging the status of the Afghan-Pakistan border and providing a haven to the anti-Pakistan insurgent group the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, which has killed thousands of Pakistanis and seeks to establish a Taliban-style, Shariah-compliant state in Pakistan. This has stunned Islamabad, which was operating on the assumption that the Taliban would be beholden to Pakistan out of gratitude for years of support.
U.S. Steps Up Diplomacy in Pacific Amid Solomon Islands-China Pact
A leaked draft of a Solomon Islands-China security agreement has led to heightened concern over the island nation’s turn toward China. Washington dispatched a high-level delegation in late April to the island nation, days after China said the pact had been signed, saying it would “intensify engagement in the region.” The United States and its regional partners, particularly Australia and New Zealand, are worried about the potential of Chinese military bases on the islands, although the details of the agreement remain vague — which is itself a source of concern.
Africa’s Key to Peace and Stability? A ‘Mighty Private Sector,’ Elumelu Says
Tony Elumelu, one of Africa’s leading investors and philanthropists, recently brought his message to USIP: For Africa, a strong private sector, spurred by entrepreneurs, is critical to advancing peace, stability and development. While promoting business formation is no substitute for strengthening Africa’s weak infrastructure, governance and institutions, neither are challenging business conditions a reason to delay unleashing the entrepreneurial energies of African youth, Elumelu said.
Sowing the Seeds of Nonviolent Action in Sudan
From 2013 to 2018, Sudanese civil society actors carved out a variety of civic spaces that laid the foundation for Sudan’s 2018–2019 December Revolution. This report assesses the factors that gave rise to this remarkable mobilization—in particular how civil society development ultimately enabled the Sudanese opposition to sustain a decentralized, nationwide, and robust nonviolent campaign characterized by widespread mass participation, unity of leadership and purpose, and a commitment to nonviolent discipline—and what it will take to keep the country’s democratic transition on track.
The Ukraine War Escalates Demands to Reform the United Nations
Russia’s brutal assault on Ukraine has revived demands that the world repair longstanding weaknesses in the United Nations’ ability to counter wars of aggression. This week’s Russia-Ukraine diplomacy by the U.N. secretary-general, and a surprising vote at the U.N. General Assembly, seem likely to energize those debates and attempts at repair.
A Look at Neutrality Now — and After the Ukraine War
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted several conversations about the concept of “neutrality” in international law and related matters. Although this week’s visits between United Nations Secretary-General Antonió Guterres and Russian President Vladimir Putin and Guterres and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have sparked some hope of reinvigorating peace talks, a settlement seems like a distant prospect. Nonetheless, it is likely that any deal will include provisions for Ukraine’s long-term neutrality in exchange for external states’ security guarantees. But autocrats like Putin often weaponize international legal concepts like neutrality for their own ends. As such, it is vital to reconsider and update global commitments to stabilizing legal frameworks to prevent would-be aggressors from exploiting international law.
Will the Ukraine War Renew Global Commitments to the International Criminal Court?
The international response to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine has resulted in the highest level of support for the International Criminal Court (ICC) since its creation 20 years ago. Forty-three states parties to the Rome Statute, the ICC’s foundational treaty, have referred the conflict to the Court for investigation. States — both state parties and non-state parties to the Rome Statute — have stepped up to support investigative efforts through financial resources and intelligence.