Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Vietnam’s Paradox: Domestic Tumult, Diplomatic Consistency
Last September, President Biden and Vietnamese General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng announced a new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, raising U.S.-Vietnam relations to their highest level ever. Yet domestic politics in Vietnam have been rocky, with numerous leadership changes and increasing restrictions on civil society — raising uncertainty within Vietnam’s usually stable political system.
Venezuela’s Election Outcome Isn’t a Done Deal Just Yet
With less than two months before Venezuela’s presidential election, President Nicolas Maduro faces a stark choice. Should he be beaten at the polls, as opinion surveys suggest he will be, Maduro could concede defeat and negotiate a transfer of power with safeguards against legal persecution. Or he could try to steal or invalidate the election. Most observers assume Maduro will opt for the latter, but doing so could put him at even greater personal risk.
Taiwan’s New President Faces Tensions with China and Domestic Division
Over four months after winning Taiwan’s presidential election, William Lai Ching-te from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officially took office on May 20. Beijing fiercely criticized Lai’s inaugural address and conducted military drills and patrols around Taiwan in a bid to “punish” Lai for failing to heed China’s preferred positions. In the days following the speech, Lai also faced challenges at home, as opposition parties in Taiwan’s legislature passed a set of reform bills that critics warn could increase China’s ability to interfere in Taiwan’s domestic affairs.
In Pyongyang, Putin and Kim Tighten Ties, Pledge Mutual Defense
As President Vladimir Putin’s illegal war on Ukraine grinds on, the Russian leader needs friends and supporters wherever he can get them. To that end, Putin traveled this week to North Korea for the first time in nearly 25 years, looking to deepen cooperation with the rogue regime and, chiefly, to get more ammunition for his war on Ukraine. Putin and Kim Jong Un inked what the North Korean leader called “the most powerful treaty” ever between the two countries. While strengthened ties between two of Washington’s most enduring adversaries are of unquestioned concern for the U.S., Beijing is also wary of the implications.
As Taliban Poppy Ban Continues, Afghan Poverty Deepens
Afghanistan, historically the leading source of the world’s illegal opium, is on-track for an unprecedented second year of dramatically reduced poppy cultivation, reflecting the Taliban regime’s continuing prohibition against growing the raw material for opiates. The crackdown has won plaudits in international circles, but its full implications call for clear-eyed analysis and well considered responses by the U.S. and others. The ban has deepened the poverty of millions of rural Afghans who depended on the crop for their livelihoods, yet done nothing to diminish opiate exports, as wealthier landowners sell off inventories. The unfortunate reality is that any aid mobilized to offset harm from the ban will be grossly insufficient and ultimately wasted unless it fosters broad-based rural and agricultural development that benefits the most affected poorer households.
From Dams to Data: China’s Shifting Interests in Central America
China continues to face economic headwinds, marked by reports this week of a protracted property slump. To address its mounting economic and financial challenges, Beijing is implementing a new industr
After Ukraine’s Peace Summit, Widen Consensus With ‘Middle Powers’
Last weekend saw the broadest, highest-level international endorsement yet for the principles of Ukraine’s peace proposal to end Russia’s invasion. Ukraine’s first peace summit, in Switzerland, drew 101 countries and international institutions, of which more than 80 signed a declaration endorsing “principles of sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine.” As Russia counters any such vision with disingenuous and unserious offers to negotiate, Ukraine and its allies could more energetically draw “middle powers,” such as India, Egypt or Saudi Arabia, into the coming round of efforts to shape a viable, just peace process.
How Disruptive Technologies Are Changing Peace and Security
The global landscape of violence and conflict is transforming at a rapid pace, as disruptive technologies revolutionize how wars are waged. For years, security forces and intelligence agencies have been steeped in the dynamic threats posed by new technologies and they regularly use advanced tools to respond to those threats. Diplomats and peacebuilders, however, may often neglect threats from disruptive technologies due to an overreliance on historical power dynamics; a lack of creative thinking fostered by elite, risk-averse cultural pressures; and a disconnect from local communities where violence occurs. Tech illiteracy hampers understanding of how emerging technologies are used and how they can exacerbate conflicts.
Gaza at the G7: The Daunting Divide between Rhetoric and Reality
The ongoing war in Gaza was only one of several items on the agenda for last week’s summit of leading Western economies, known as the Group of 7 (G7). But, given the global attention on Gaza and coming on the heels of the Biden administration’s most recent push to achieve a cease-fire — including sponsorship of a U.N. Security Council resolution toward that end — questions around the prospects for a negotiated pause in fighting and hostage agreement dominated the discussions.
El Resultado de las Elecciones en Venezuela Aún No Está Decidido
Con menos de dos meses para las elecciones presidenciales en Venezuela, el presidente Nicolás Maduro enfrenta una decisión crucial. Si es derrotado en las urnas, como sugieren las encuestas, Maduro podría aceptar la derrota y negociar un traspaso de poder con protecciones contra persecución legal. O podría intentar robarse o invalidar la elección. La mayoría de los observadores asumen que Maduro optará por lo último, pero hacerlo podría ponerlo en un riesgo personal aún mayor.