Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
¿Puede Bolivia evitar una nueva oleada de violencia electoral en 2025?
Cuando el candidato de izquierda Luis Arce ganó las elecciones de Bolivia en 2020, muchos esperaban que el país finalmente pudiera entrar en un período de estabilidad y paz. La sorprendentemente pacífica transferencia de poder se produjo después de uno de los períodos más tumultuosos de la historia política reciente de Bolivia. El presidente Evo Morales, un líder indígena de izquierda, habia sido derrocado en 2019 después de protestas masivas y acusaciones de fraude electoral, seguidas por la controvertida presidencia interina de Jeanine Añez y las violentas y a veces letales protestas contra su gobierno, junto con la pandemia de COVID-19 en 2020. Cuando el moderado tecnócrata Arce ganó con una abrumadora victoria del 54% en la primera vuelta, se vio como un indicio que el país deseaba un semblante de unidad nacional y podría encontrar un espacio para sanar.
Can Bolivia Avoid Renewed Election Violence in 2025?
When leftist candidate Luis Arce won Bolivia’s 2020 elections, many hoped that the country could finally enter a period of stabilization and peace. The surprisingly peaceful transfer of power came after one of the most tumultuous periods of recent Bolivian political history. President Evo Morales, a leftist indigenous leader, was ousted in 2019 after massive protests and electoral fraud allegations, followed by the controversial interim presidency of Jeanine Añez and the violent and sometimes lethal protests against her government, alongside the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. When the moderate, technocrat Arce won with an overwhelming 54% victory in the first round, it was seen as an indicator the country wanted a degree of national unity and could find the space to heal.
Moldova: As Russia Fuels Conflict, Could Churches Build Peace?
Russia’s escalating campaign to block Moldova from joining the European Union reflects a weakening in Eastern Europe of a longstanding Russian lever of regional influence: its Orthodox church. A number of Moldovan Orthodox priests and parishes are campaigning to withdraw their nation’s churches from two centuries of formal subordination to Russia’s church, and Moldova’s senior prelate has bluntly condemned his superior, the Russian Orthodox Church patriarch, for supporting Moscow’s war on Ukraine. As conflict escalates this year over Moldova’s future, advocates of European democracy and stability might strengthen both by supporting dialogue to reduce conflict between Moldova’s historically Russia-linked church and its smaller rival, subordinate to the Orthodox hierarchy in neighboring Romania.
Three Troubling Takeaways on U.S.-China Relations from the Shangri La Dialogue
The recently concluded 2024 Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore provided another useful opportunity for senior U.S. and Chinese national security officials to engage in face-to-face bilateral discussions and interact with officials and experts from other states. While these engagements have value in theory, they highlight three persistent problems in the practice of U.S.-China relations. First, the United States and China tend to talk past each other. Second, the United States and China have dissimilar systems, which makes identifying and engaging with appropriate counterpart officials very difficult. Third, the United States and China possess fundamentally different understandings about the role of third countries in managing confrontation and mitigating conflict.
Five Factors Shaping the Future of Egypt-Israel Relations
The Gaza war has strained Egyptian-Israeli relations to an unprecedented level and raised questions about the future of their 1979 peace treaty that has been a cornerstone of Arab-Israeli peace. U.S. officials met recently in Cairo with their Israeli and Egyptian counterparts against a backdrop of mutually diminishing confidence between the two parties, particularly following Israel’s ground offensive in Rafah. This comes on the heels of a shooting incident between Israeli and Egyptian forces that left at least one Egyptian soldier dead, and Egypt joining South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Along with Qatar, Egypt is a key broker in the current Israel-Hamas cease-fire efforts and engages in extensive security cooperation with the U.S. and Israel.
Boiling the Frog: China’s Incrementalist Maritime Expansion
For over three decades, Beijing has deployed an initially slow but now accelerating campaign to degrade Philippine maritime rights and access in the West Philippine Sea. This long-term effort has been characterized by often seemingly benign actions and even conciliatory rhetoric interspersed with escalatory words and deeds designed to test the thresholds of neighbors and allies. Today, China’s rising aggression in the West Philippine Sea and broader South China Sea has pushed the region to the precipice of conflict.
Keith Mines on the Latest from Haiti
While Haiti’s Transitional Council has appointed a prime minister to lead a temporary government and the Kenyan-led international security mission is expected to deploy soon, “[Haiti’s] gangs are still pretty strong,” says USIP’s Keith Mines. “There’s really going to be a fight for power … over the coming months.”
After India’s Surprising Elections, What’s Next for Modi’s Foreign Policy?
Widely expected to cruise to a third-straight majority in India’s parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) instead lost ground and must now rely on its National Democratic Alliance partners, especially the Janata Dal (United) party and the Telugu Desam Party, to form a coalition government. While the stunning results will have immediate consequences for Modi’s domestic agenda, foreign and national security policies are not top priorities for India’s new parliament. Still, the political changes associated with coalition rule and the BJP’s unanticipated electoral setback could affect India’s international relationships in important ways.
Vietnam’s Paradox: Domestic Tumult, Diplomatic Consistency
Last September, President Biden and Vietnamese General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng announced a new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, raising U.S.-Vietnam relations to their highest level ever. Yet domestic politics in Vietnam have been rocky, with numerous leadership changes and increasing restrictions on civil society — raising uncertainty within Vietnam’s usually stable political system.
Venezuela’s Election Outcome Isn’t a Done Deal Just Yet
With less than two months before Venezuela’s presidential election, President Nicolas Maduro faces a stark choice. Should he be beaten at the polls, as opinion surveys suggest he will be, Maduro could concede defeat and negotiate a transfer of power with safeguards against legal persecution. Or he could try to steal or invalidate the election. Most observers assume Maduro will opt for the latter, but doing so could put him at even greater personal risk.