Menu

United States Institute of Peace

Home ▶ Events

Global Trends 2040: Navigating A More Contested World

A Look at the Key Trends That Will Shape the Next Two Decades

Date: Wednesday, June 9, 2021 / Time: 11:30am - 12:30pm EDT

Read the Event Coverage
Share This
Print the Page

With shifting global demographics, rapid technological change and rising geopolitical competition, the world is at a critical juncture. The COVID-19 pandemic has reminded the world of its fragility, creating new uncertainties about governance, economic growth and state stability. Meanwhile, additional shared global challenges such as climate change, mass migration and technological insecurity are manifesting more frequently and more intensely — and within an increasingly fragmented international environment. To help policymakers navigate our future world, the National Intelligence Council's recent report, “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World,” analyzes the key structural forces and emerging dynamics that are shaping the international landscape and presents scenarios for what the next two decades might hold.

Having trouble seeing the video? Watch here

Published every four years since 1997, the Global Trends report represents one of the most ambitious efforts by the U.S. intelligence community to understand the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the future global strategic environment. This year's report analyzes major structural forces in demographics, technology, economics and the environment and explores how these forces will affect dynamics within societies, governments and the international system. It also envisions a variety of plausible scenarios for the world of 2040 — from a democratic renaissance to competitive coexistence between the U.S. and China. 

On June 9, USIP hosted a timely conversation, moderated by Ambassador George Moose, with the lead author of “Global Trends 2040,” from the National Intelligence Council as well as a panel of global leaders and scholars from across the national security, development and private sectors. Panelists evaluated the findings from this year's report and consider how a range of actors can harness these trends to shape a more secure and prosperous future.  

Continue the discussion on Twitter with #GT2040.

Speakers

Lise Grande, opening remarks
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace

Avril Haines, video message
Director of National Intelligence 

Maria Langan-Riekhof, framing remarks
Director Strategic Futures Group, National Intelligence Council

Kamissa Camara
Former Foreign Minister, Mali and Visiting Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace

General F. Carter Ham (USA, Ret.)
President and CEO, Association of the United States Army and former Commander, U.S. Africa Command

David Miliband
President and CEO, International Rescue Committee; Former Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK 

Ambassador George Moose, moderator
Vice Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace

Related Publications

What Haiti Needs from the U.S. and International Community

What Haiti Needs from the U.S. and International Community

Wednesday, May 1, 2024

By: Georges Fauriol

Despite obvious distractions from crises in other corners of the world, Haiti’s deepening disaster is belatedly drawing wider international attention. Critics of U.S. policy toward Haiti are emerging from all corners of the political spectrum — and there is much to be critical of, particularly if the timeframe is stretched to cover Haiti's political experience since the late 1980s and the transition from the Duvalier dictatorships. But in the here and now, these assessments short charge the admittedly tough odds of the most recent Caribbean Community- (CARICOM) managed mediation efforts from which has emerged Haiti’s Presidential Council, a transitional governance structure for the country.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance;  Global Policy

In Russia’s Hybrid War on Europe, Moldova’s Critical Next 15 Months

In Russia’s Hybrid War on Europe, Moldova’s Critical Next 15 Months

Wednesday, May 1, 2024

By: Donald N. Jensen, Ph.D. ;   James Rupert

A rising risk in southeast Europe is Russia’s sharpening of conflicts to block Moldova’s effort to join the European Union. The Kremlin is escalating a hybrid campaign to manipulate three Moldovan elections over the next 15 months. Moscow last week hosted the formation of a political bloc around its primary Moldovan ally, a fugitive billionaire convicted of the country’s worst-ever bank fraud — and sent a startling flood of pre-election cash that police seized at Moldova’s main airport. This is a critical season for Moldova’s democratic allies to help it defeat Russian disinformation and election subversion.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Nine Things to Know About Myanmar’s Conflict Three Years On

Nine Things to Know About Myanmar’s Conflict Three Years On

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

By: Ye Myo Hein

On March 28, 2021, barely two months after the February 1 coup in Myanmar, a minor skirmish erupted at the Tarhan protest in Kalay township in central Sagaing region as demonstrators took up makeshift weapons to defend themselves against ruthless assaults by the junta’s security forces. This was the first recorded instance of civilian armed resistance to the military’s violent crackdown on peaceful protesters since the February 1 coup d’état.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Bangladesh’s Growing Role in Maritime Security

Bangladesh’s Growing Role in Maritime Security

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

By: Nilanthi Samaranayake

Despite several years of relative calm, piracy is back in the western Indian Ocean. When the Houthis began attacking international shipping in the Red Sea in late 2023, Somali pirates saw an opportunity to conduct attacks on ships off the Horn of Africa.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

View All Publications