Russian President Vladimir Putin’s defiance of global peace and security norms has steadily grown more brazen over time, with the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine marking his most flagrant violation to date. However, the Kremlin’s lofty strategic ambitions have run up against harsh realities on the ground in what has become a brutal war of attrition. Ukrainian counteroffensives have inflicted heavy losses on the Russian military in recent weeks. And inside Russia, the government’s partial mobilization is sparking protests and acts of resistance throughout the country. Despite these setbacks, Putin has only doubled down — escalating threats of nuclear confrontation against Ukraine and the West.

On November 3, USIP hosted a conversation on the war’s latest developments, Russia’s strategic thinking and the implications for Ukraine, Russia and Europe. The discussion also looked at how Putin and the Russian government’s approach to war has evolved over time, the ways the internal workings of Putin's system led to the war — as well as what bearing that may have on the form, timing and context for its end.

Continue the conversation on Twitter using #UkraineUSIP.

Speakers

Mark Galeotti
Principal Director, Mayak Intelligence; Senior Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute

Donald Jensen, moderator
Director, Russia and Europe Center, U.S. Institute of Peace

Related Publications

Ukraine’s Pivot Changes the Narrative in Russia’s war; Outcome Remains Unclear

Ukraine’s Pivot Changes the Narrative in Russia’s war; Outcome Remains Unclear

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Almost 30 months into Vladimir Putin’s brutalization of Ukraine with a full-scale invasion that has pulverized vast swaths of its farmlands, towns and cities, Ukrainians have surprised Putin and the world by driving the war back into Russia — a move that, if nothing else, has altered the current narrative around this conflict. Ukraine has again brandished its determination, initiative and innovation, effectively resetting assumptions in its defense against its much larger attacker. The possible outcomes of Ukraine’s strike remain varied and unpredictable — and its eventual implications will rest on the evolutions of several questions, both military and political.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Donald Jensen on Ukraine’s Surprise Incursion into Russia

Donald Jensen on Ukraine’s Surprise Incursion into Russia

Monday, August 12, 2024

The Ukrainian military seized a chunk of territory in the Kursk region of Russia as part of a surprise incursion that has left the Russian military in “a panic,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen, adding that Putin’s strategy until now did not “take into account that Ukraine could strike back, and they certainly have.”

Type: Podcast

After Trading Prisoners with Russia: Can the World Negotiate with Putin?

After Trading Prisoners with Russia: Can the World Negotiate with Putin?

Thursday, August 8, 2024

Last week’s prisoner exchange with Russia — the largest since the Cold War, with 24 captives exchanged among seven countries — sparked hopes internationally that, just maybe, similarly determined diplomacy might help thaw the frigid relations between Russia and the West and open space for a negotiated end to Russia’s aggressions abroad. Unfortunately, the prisoner deal’s underlying message is that Vladimir Putin’s regime uses negotiations only when it sees the outcome, as it did last week, as a victory at the expense of its perceived enemies. The deal illustrates the narrowness of opportunity for any negotiated solution to settle the sides’ differences.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

China’s Global Security Initiative: Tilting the Balance in Central Asia

China’s Global Security Initiative: Tilting the Balance in Central Asia

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

In recent years, Beijing has been reevaluating its conceptual framework for foreign policy, with a focus on enhancing its role in global governance. With the aim of transforming China into the world's leading country, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has put forward a number of new initiatives — including the Global Security Initiative (GSI) — as a way of creating new formats of cooperation between China and the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Global South.

Type: Analysis

EconomicsGlobal Policy

View All Publications