CSMF findings can inform both policymakers and peacebuilding practitioners. The CSMF tracks the evolving perceptions of different population groups over time to inform stakeholders on how to best address group grievances. The data can be used to:
- Establish a baseline before interventions, and aid design thereof;
- Measure results of interventions;
- Monitor dynamics for potential destabilization — and hopefully trigger preventive action.
The CSMF reflects USIP’s commitment to monitoring as a tool for adaptive institutional learning. In 2018, USIP launched the CSMF in Iraq and has since collected eight rounds of data, seven in Nineveh province and one in Anbar province. In both provinces, USIP uses this data to adjust its programs to the changing conflict environment and inform the design of its local problem-solving dialogues which address tensions that discourage social cohesion, community development, and the return of displaced persons.
CSMF - Nineveh Province
View the interactive dashboard اضغط هنا للقراءة باللغة العربية
A microcosm of Iraq’s social mosaic, Nineveh is home to Christians, Yazidis (Ezidis), Shabaks, Kaka’is, Kurds, Turkmens, and both Sunni and Shia Arabs. These communities have undergone intense disruptions and violence since the rise of ISIS in 2014. Despite the territorial defeat of ISIS, many remain displaced from towns and villages across the province, unable or unwilling to return to their homes. The complex interplay of political and security factors in ISIS’s wake has also contributed to intercommunal tensions between ethnoreligious groups. Since 2018, USIP collected seven waves of CSMF data, the latest of which is in March 2023, from communities across Nineveh representing a total of 5 out of 9 districts (varies across the rounds).
CSMF - Anbar Province
View the interactive dashboard
Situated in western Iraq, bordering Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, Anbar province holds strategic importance for security and was a major battleground during the conflict with ISIS. Anbar is predominately inhabited by Sunni Arabs and has a strong tribal structure. An estimated 50% of the Iraqis displaced in Al Hol camp in Syria—which mainly houses women and children from areas liberated from ISIS—are from Anbar. Effective reintegration of Iraqis repatriated from al-Hol entails not only security vetting and rehabilitation programs but also addressing community concerns and challenges faced by returnees in order to repair the social fabric and prevent violent extremism. USIP collected one round of CSMF data in February 2024 in 11 out of the 12 districts in Anbar.
CSMF Framework - Stabilization Goals and Indicators
The table below offers a snapshot of the themes and goals that currently comprise the CSMF. Each goal is subdivided into a series of indicators.
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THEME |
GOAL |
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Governance
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Responsiveness of institutions: Institutions are responsive to the population. |
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Exclusion from governance: Authorities and dominant groups do not engage in political exclusion on the basis of group identity. |
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Confidence in political process: Citizens believe that a political process is fair and effective for advancing their aims. |
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Reconciliation and Justice |
Reconciliation process: There is a need and desire for reconciliation at the district level. |
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Dialogue processes and agreements: Dialogues and agreements are known about and perceived positively. |
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Addressing ISIS conflict-related issues: There is confidence that the steps taken toward formal accountability and redress for ISIS-related issues are moving to the right direction. |
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Acknowledgment and non-recurrence: The legacy of past experiences of abuses and violence in the last decades are recognized and addressed. |
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Social Cohesion and Wellbeing |
Personal wellbeing: Citizens have adequate wellbeing. |
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Inequalities: There is no perceived inequality in terms of services, financial opportunities, and support. |
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Community trust: There is a sense of trust and respect among individuals and groups. |
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Population returns: There is social acceptance for the remaining returns process. |
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Population composition: People feel comfortable with the demographic composition in which they currently live. |
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Rootedness and belonging: Citizens feel a sense of rootedness and belonging to where they live. |
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Rule of Law
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Functioning of legal system: The legal system performs essential functions effectively. |
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Local law enforcement: Local police forces exercise effective control of law enforcement in the subdistricts. |
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Primary mechanism for dealing with crime/disputes: People seek resolution of crimes/disputes through any mechanism. |
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Accountability: There is accountability for misconducts. |
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Independence of local institutions: There is trust that the local government is independent from external actors. |
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Freedom of expression: People feel they have freedom of expression and identity. |
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Safety and Security |
General safety: There is a safe and secure environment for everyday activities. |
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Feelings of protection: Residents feel protected by security forces and armed groups from physical threats. |
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Concerns on violence from security actors: Security forces or armed groups do not use their force to intimidate the population or interfere in political agendas. |
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Security for the common good: Security forces and armed groups are impartial and work for the common good. |
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Inclusivity and recruitment in security forces: Security forces are inclusive of all groups and there are no cleavages in terms of representation. |
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Climate Change |
Impact of climate change on conflict: The impact of climate change is understood, and actions are taken to address it. |