U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Julie Mason: Joining me now, Carla Freeman is the U.S. Institute of Peace senior expert for China. Here to talk a little Asia policy. Good morning, Carla.

Carla Freeman: Good morning.

Julie Mason: So, we've had a few days to process Biden's trip to Asia. How would you assess it?

Carla Freeman: Well, I think it was a very successful trip for the president. He had a chance to meet with members of the new-ish Quad, the group of four partners, including the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, in Tokyo, and he also got to visit a new leader in Seoul and meet the new prime minister of Australia. So, it was a very good trip for Biden, and he rolled out a new economic vision for the Indo-Pacific. All around, he came back, I think, having scored some positive points in the region,

Julie Mason: But it was overshadowed, in part, by that somewhat of a blunder on Taiwan policy.

Carla Freeman: Well, there's a debate over whether it was a gaffe or a deliberate statement. It's something that President Biden has actually said a number of times. He, I think, is, my view is that his is trying to deter China from any kind of copycat behavior, given the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and is stepping up an effort to deter China by ending or suggesting that the United States has Taiwan's back. Historically, the policy has been to stick very strictly to this concept of strategic ambiguity. Where U.S. support for Taiwan's defense is concerned, we are committed through the Taiwan Relations Act to arming Taiwan so that it has a credible defense against China. But we have never come out and said that we would actually use a military force in a Cross-Strait conflict. And it also keeps Taiwan on its toes and prevents Taiwan from taking steps that might provoke China to attack it.

Julie Mason: Well, it's just overnight, we see the news that China sent, what 30 war planes near Taiwan? Taiwan scrambles jets in response. Like there, it's, you know, it seems very tense.

Carla Freeman: Things are heating up, definitely. China has been putting a lot of pressure on Taiwan. And so, the message Biden is sending to China is to back off, because it is creating a lot of not only tensions across the strait, but actual risk that there could be a collision of some kind between Chinese warplanes and the Taiwan forces which could spark some kind of conflict. China's penetrating way into Taiwan's 80s. And that's really scary. But it's part of an overall approach to the whole South China Sea that China has taken, which is to assert very sweeping claims over that entire important body of water. So, Taiwan is a key point in this whole effort by China to assert broad claims. And in fact, that's a lot about what President Biden was concerned about during his trip to Tokyo.

Julie Mason: And we had a very important speech the other day from the secretary of state on the matter of China. What was your takeaway from that?

Carla Freeman: Well, I think it was a very good speech. I think, you know, he certainly Blinken got some criticism, because I think people were expecting a bit more, you know, stronger statement on Taiwan, or else, some kind of breakthrough on trade. And it really walked a fine line. Blinken did identify China as a major strategic threat, the major strategic threat, and the pacing challenge for the United States. At the same time, he laid out a kind of a three-pillar approach to managing relations with China. The idea is that we have to focus on investing in our own country, aligning more strongly with our allies and partners, but also compete with China, both militarily and also economically. And at the same time, he made very clear that the United States is not interested in changing China's government and tried to reassure the Chinese people that the United States welcomes people-to-people ties. There were also a number of other areas that Blinken identified as potential places where the United States and China could collaborate or work together, climate change for one. Kerry was, of course, soon to go to attend the summit in Davos where he met with China's climate negotiator. So, it was overall, I think, a careful speech. One that didn't offer much, stood firm on U.S. concerns about China, but also kept the door open to areas where we might be able to work together to add some reassurance to a very, very tense relationship.

Julie Mason: Yeah, and Carla, what signs did you see from China on how they are receiving these postures from the United States?

Carla Freeman: Well, China's reaction was, I think, probably vitriolic describes it best. China's foreign ministry spokesperson tweeted a multi-point tweet where she attacked Blinken's speech and called it duplicitous. And essentially said it was a declaration of cold war. And, of course, she laid out a whole number of points, sort of point by point, attacking Biden's speech, including criticizing him for trying, or the United States, for trying to separate the Chinese government from the Chinese people. And it was troubling, because at the end of this series of tweets, she really left open the question of whether the United States and China can coexist peacefully.

Julie Mason: Oh, my. That's rather ominous.

Carla Freeman: Yes, it is. I mean, I think the main concern that China has is really focused on this point that Blinken made that the United States seeks to shape the strategic environment around China. And the Chinese see that as essentially a containment strategy. They are deeply concerned about our new partnerships, like the Quad and AUKUS, and growing cooperation between our Asian partners and allies and NATO. So, the Chinese are pushing back rhetorically, and as you pointed out earlier, they're also putting a lot of military pressure on our partners in the region. On Taiwan, which they claim territorially, but also, remember, during the summit in Tokyo, China and Russia conducted their first joint exercise since the invasion of Ukraine.

Julie Mason: Carla, a guest on the show recently was arguing that China is no longer a rising power, it's a power that has peaked and is therefore actually more dangerous.

Carla Freeman: I have heard that. I think it is a question of debate, China is struggling to keep its once double digit, repeatedly, double digit growth economy on track. And there are other pressures – the zero COVID policy has been really difficult politically, and it has faced a lot of public opposition. So, there are challenges at home. But China is still growing, and it still has a lot of capabilities. Its military is formidable, and it still has, the United States should not forget that China still has, a lot of international support. That's one way, one target of opportunity for the United States through diplomacy is strengthening our partnerships, our diplomatic relationships around the world. China is, I don't think it's out of the game yet. And it is still a major source of economic growth in the world. And I, frankly, think we probably don't want to see China collapse anytime soon. We want to find a way to stabilize our relationship with China. I don't think we're ever going to return to the kind of bilateral partnership that we enjoyed for a couple of decades. We are too far apart on too many issues. But, I think, you know, the Chinese, for their part, see us as a declining power. And maybe that's a good thing because they might be able to work with us better if they perceive us as not being able to sustain our power in the future. In any case, I think the two countries need to talk to each other a little bit more in order to find some ways forward.

Julie Mason: The Wall Street Journal this morning reporting that China and the U.S. are arranging in person meetings between the Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart in Singapore.

Carla Freeman: Yeah, I think that's a positive step. And one of the big concerns that both governments have – the United States, however, has been particularly concerned about this – is that there could be a crisis that spins out of control. And our communications with the Chinese government have been notoriously poor. Not for want, I think, of trying on the U.S. side. They just, the Chinese system isn't designed to have its leaders at different levels interact directly with U.S. counterparts. So, we really need formal, more formal channels of communication. And I'm sure that is going to be a big topic of discussion.

Julie Mason: Carla Freeman is the senior expert for China at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Carla, thank you so much for joining me this morning.

Carla Freeman: Thanks, my pleasure.

Julie Mason: Good to talk.