Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Will Voters or the Courts Choose Guatemala's Next President?
Guatemalans head to the polls on August 20 to vote in a presidential run-off election. Both candidates come from the country’s center-left: Sandra Torres is a veteran campaigner, who has run for president twice before. Bernardo Arévalo leads a relatively new party whose surprisingly strong showing in the first-round vote propelled him into the runoff for the first time.
Frank Aum on the Need for Diplomacy with North Korea
In the 70 years since the Korean War armistice, mutual deterrence has emerged as the prevailing strategy for preventing conflict on the peninsula. But USIP’s Frank Aum says “deterrence is not an end … [it’s] supposed to buy time” for diplomacy, and the West has the power to restart dialogue with North Korea.
It’s Time for an All-Out War on Explosive Remnants in Solomon Islands
On August 7, U.S. military personnel, diplomats and civilians will gather at the WWII American Guadalcanal Memorial to mark the 81st anniversary of the U.S. Marine landings. Two days of planned commemorative events will include speeches, wreath laying and gatherings to honor the valor of those who fought and the sacrifices of those who never came home. But too often, U.S. attendees return home from this annual commemoration without leaving a lasting footprint in the Solomon Island sand.
At Ukraine’s Edge, Russia Presses Hybrid War on Tiny Moldova
At a sensitive edge of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Moscow is sustaining a campaign to regain control in Moldova, the small, ex-Soviet republic landlocked between Ukraine and Romania. Russia has maneuvered for years to scuttle Moldovans’ aims to join the European Union, crimping their economy and controlling easternmost Moldova with Russian troops and proxies. A Kremlin-backed party won a Moldovan regional election in May and Moscow will aim to defeat Moldova’s pro-European national government in elections by 2025. The United States and its partners should urgently unify efforts to help Moldovans sustain their independence and stability.
A Coup in Niger: What It Means for Africa, U.S. and Partners
This morning’s coup d’etat in Niger only deepens the pattern of instability across Africa’s Sahel and damages what has been a rare process of fairly steady democracy building in the region. Niger’s democratically elected government has been a valued partner for African and international efforts to stabilize the Sahel against its web of insurgencies, extremist movements and military coups. Kamissa Camara, a former foreign minister of Niger’s neighbor, Mali, now an analyst on the region with USIP, says the coup underlines lessons already evident about how to improve international efforts to build democracy and peace.
What Does Qin Gang’s Removal Mean for China’s Foreign Policy?
Speculation has run rampant the last month over the whereabouts of China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang. Rumors ranged from the salacious (he had an affair) to the mundane, while the official line states that he is dealing with health problems. On Tuesday, China officially replaced Qin with his predecessor, Wang Yi, who leads the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) foreign policy apparatus. Qin’s removal from office, and the erasure of references to him and his activities on official Chinese government websites, have only furthered interest into what happened. Beyond the political intrigue, the more substantive question is what this means for China’s diplomacy.
Washington Picks Up the Pace in the Pacific
Senior Biden administration officials are back in the Pacific Islands region this week. Once a seemingly far-flung corner of the globe, the United States has in recent years prioritized engagement to counter China’s foothold in a region Washington long neglected. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is the first U.S. defense chief to visit Papua New Guinea, where Secretary of State Antony Blinken went in late May and signed a bilateral defense cooperation deal. Meanwhile, Blinken is Tonga this week to open a new U.S. embassy in the island nation. The top U.S. diplomat will also visit New Zealand before heading to Australia where he will be joined by Austin for the annual Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations.
How to Break the Impasse in U.S.-China Crisis Communication
Despite the clear (and arguably growing) possibility of a future Sino-American crisis or even conflict over Taiwan or some other contentious issue and the fact that senior American and Chinese leaders have at times endorsed the need for more effective crisis avoidance interactions, little of real substance has actually been done to address the danger. Indeed, military-to-military talks have been on pause since Beijing suspended them in August 2022 after then-speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. As U.S.-China competition continues to intensify, it is critical that Washington and Beijing break this impasse by devising fresh approaches to avoid conflict altogether.
Heather Ashby on Moscow’s Diplomatic Approach to the Russia-Africa Summit
After pulling out of a U.N.-backed grain deal, Russia may be looking for ways to ship more grain and fertilizers to African countries ahead of the Russia-Africa Summit. But the summit’s success is far from certain, “not only because of the war in Ukraine, but because Russia hasn’t lived up to its previous promises,” says USIP’s Heather Ashby.
One Vital Change Can Advance Long-Term Peace in Ukraine
While NATO’s recent summit consolidated the transatlantic consensus that a peaceful Europe requires a democratic and inclusive Ukraine, Ukrainians’ heroic struggle for that democracy must overcome old corruptions, plus new traumas inflicted by Vladimir Putin’s war. A pillar of any democracy is civil society — the constellation of citizens’ groups that, more than government, can understand and heal domestic conflicts. So as international partners support Ukraine’s rebuilding from war, we must urgently engage its vibrant civil society — not as a mere adjunct to government efforts, but as a primary designer and engine of the political and cultural changes that peace will require.