Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
At G20, India Tests Geopolitical Clout Amid Xi’s Absence
World leaders from the Group of 20 (G20) gather this weekend in New Delhi, India, for the intergovernmental forum’s annual summit. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is aiming to leverage the summit to showcase India’s growing international influence. The summit will be center stage for the emerging divisions in world politics and for major powers’ efforts to woo the Global South. Yet, despite this competition, China’s Xi Jinping has opted to not attend the summit in what many see as a snub to rival India. The White House has said it will come to the summit with a “value proposition” for the Global South, focused on multilateral development reform, climate financing, debt relief and technology.
In Southeast Asia, U.S.-China Competition Is More than a Two-Player Game
Great power rivalry between the United States and China is frequently couched in bilateral terms with regions of the world merely serving as arenas of competition. Rarely considered is the reality that while third countries may be significantly weaker than either the United States or China, they are neither totally helpless nor completely without leverage or absent agency. As Southeast Asia is “where great powers meet,” the region’s states have a challenging balancing act to play, but also have options in how they manage the risks and opportunities presented by this competition.
The Promise and Peril of Pakistan’s Economic Recovery Effort
In the first half of 2023, Pakistan appeared to be moving toward a catastrophic economic default. An IMF loan program Pakistan entered into in 2019 had gone off track after the Fund found Islamabad’s commitment to reform lacking, leading to a suspension of loan disbursements. The derailment of the IMF program resulted in a significant drop in the country’s foreign exchange reserves — at one point this year, reserves could only cover about two weeks' worth of imports due to concurrent debt repayment pressure. To avoid defaulting, the government imposed stringent import restrictions in an attempt to control dollar outflows. That caused a major economic shutdown of import-dependent industries, a shortage of essential commodities and surge in inflation.
Sameer Lalwani on the G20 Summit
At the G20 summit, the United States should focus on engaging with the Global South. “A lot of these countries are worried about bread-and-butter issues,” says USIP’s Sameer Lalwani. “In the absence of U.S. leadership at an institutional level … there’s going to be other actors that fill that vacuum.”
What to Know About Gabon’s Coup
On August 30, just hours after Gabon’s election commission announced that President Ali Bongo Ondimba had been elected to a third term, a group of Gabonese military officers from the elite presidential guard unit seized power and placed the president under arrest at his palace. Later that day, the officers declared General Brice Oligui Nguema as chairman of the transition. While the election itself had been marred by reports of irregularities, the officers’ coup marks the latest in a long line of recent military takeovers across the African continent that have jeopardized regional stability and security.
La movilización juvenil genera esperanza para el futuro democrático de Guatemala
El 20 de agosto, los guatemaltecos votaron decisivamente a favor de Bernardo Arévalo en la segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales, dando paso al que probablemente será el presidente más progresista del país en décadas. En apenas dos meses, el Partido Movimiento Semilla de Arévalo condujo una campaña de bajo presupuesto impulsada, desde las redes sociales, que llevó a un candidato poco conocido a una victoria aplastante de 20 puntos.
What BRICS Expansion Means for the Bloc’s Founding Members
After more than 40 countries expressed interest in joining, the question of whether BRICS would admit new members was finally answered during the group’s summit last week. Despite pre-summit reports of division over the potential expansion, leaders from the five-nation bloc announced that Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would join the group starting in 2024.
Henry Tugendhat on the Geopolitical Impact of BRICS Expansion
The expansion of BRICS is a significant step in the bloc’s push to counterbalance the Western-led international order. But as a consensus-based group, “the question remains to what extent will they agree on what [that] alternative world order might look like,” says USIP’s Henry Tugendhat.
How Should the U.S. Respond to China’s Influence in Latin America?
On August 21, the Central American Parliament — a regional body representing Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic and Panama — voted to expel Taiwan as a permanent observer and replace them with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
¿Cómo deberían responder los Estados Unidos a la influencia China en América Latina?
El 21 de agosto, el Parlamento Centroamericano – organismo regional regional que representa a Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, la República Dominicana y Panamá – votó a favor de expulsar a Taiwán como observador permanente y sustituirlo por la República Popular China (RPC).