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What’s Next for Israel, Iran and Prospects for a Wider Middle East War?

What’s Next for Israel, Iran and Prospects for a Wider Middle East War?

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Early Saturday morning in Tehran, Israel carried out what it called a series of “precise and targeted” airstrikes on Iranian military targets. This was the latest in a series of direct exchanges between Isarel and Iran in recent months. Israel Defense Forces struck 20 sites, including air defense batteries and radar, factories for missile and drone production, and weapons and aircraft launch sites. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the attack had "severely damaged Iran’s defense capability and its ability to produce missiles.” The Iranian government announced the deaths of four military personnel and one civilian, but otherwise took a more measured response than might be expected.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Kiribati’s President Wins Reelection: What Does it Mean for the U.S. and China?

Kiribati’s President Wins Reelection: What Does it Mean for the U.S. and China?

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Kiribati President Taneti Maamau, reelected last week, will probably use his third term to continue strengthening ties with China. U.S. relations with Kiribati, however, remain less well established. Since last year, the number of U.S. embassies in the Pacific Islands has leapt from six to nine, reflecting the region’s higher priority to the United States as its concerns have grown about China’s engagement. But efforts to build a U.S. embassy in Kiribati — the closest country to Hawai‘i — have stalled because of Maamau’s government.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Mona Yacoubian on the Middle East’s Dangerous Escalation Dynamic

Mona Yacoubian on the Middle East’s Dangerous Escalation Dynamic

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Amid the latest exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran, the Middle East is “a region that really is on fire,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian. “There are no guardrails anymore … all of these different players are testing and probing each other to see what they can get away with. And that’s where the danger lies.”

Type: Podcast

The Latest on Southeast Asia’s Transnational Cybercrime Crisis

The Latest on Southeast Asia’s Transnational Cybercrime Crisis

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Increasing scrutiny and exposure of global internet scams based in Southeast Asia has sparked fast-moving developments to quash the schemes and countermoves by the organized gangs behind them. Recent months have seen crackdowns, arrests and internet cutoffs by law enforcement agencies and regional governments. Meanwhile, Cambodia and Myanmar continue to be the most egregious havens for criminal operations, while Laos seems to be demonstrating early signs of concern for the impact of organized crime on its sovereignty.

Type: Analysis

EconomicsGlobal PolicyHuman Rights

North Korean Troops in Russia Show Putin Is Doubling Down on Ukraine War

North Korean Troops in Russia Show Putin Is Doubling Down on Ukraine War

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

After signing a mutual defense pledge in June, North Korea and Russia relations appear to be deepening. U.S. officials confirmed last week that North Korean troops, including elite special forces, were in Russia for training and potentially combat operations against Ukraine. This represents a “dangerous expansion of the war,” according to U.S. and NATO officials. It could also have serious ramifications for peace and security on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea is concerned that the deployment of North Korean troops could provide them valuable combat and technical experience. Meanwhile, China is watching closely to see what this means for its influence over North Korea and the implications for broader geopolitical tensions with the West.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy

Connecting West and East: Indian Ocean Security and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy

Connecting West and East: Indian Ocean Security and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy

Monday, October 28, 2024

A casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that the U.S. does not care about the Indian Ocean. Even after a U.S. focus on the Indo-Pacific emerged in 2017, only a single substantive mention of the Indian Ocean appears in each of the three high-level U.S. strategy documents released in 2022: National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). Instead, most of the attention to the Indian Ocean segment of the Indo-Pacific is focused on India, which has become a key U.S. partner and has arguably been the driving factor in the shift in U.S. strategy from the “Asia-Pacific” toward the Indo-Pacific.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Haiti’s Transition Can’t Succeed Without Women’s Leadership

Haiti’s Transition Can’t Succeed Without Women’s Leadership

Monday, October 28, 2024

Despite facing some of the worst political instability and social upheaval in its history over the last decade, Haiti now has an opportunity to move forward. The selection of an effective prime minister by a Transitional Presidential Council offers the country a chance to restore security and hold elections for the first time since 2016. But for any progress to last, there will need to be a mix of transitional and transformational leadership. And that means mobilizing and respecting the essential role of women, who are currently underrepresented at all levels of government and influence.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGender

Sahel Coup Regime’s Split from ECOWAS Risks Instability in Coastal West Africa

Sahel Coup Regime’s Split from ECOWAS Risks Instability in Coastal West Africa

Thursday, October 24, 2024

As policymakers monitor the spread of terrorist violence and warfare from the Sahel region, one broad threat to international and U.S. interests is West Africa’s 3.4 million people uprooted by the Sahel’s chaos. So far, over 110,000 have fled to four West African coastal states, a migration that signals new dangers to the region’s democracies, and to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the multinational body that for decades has been central to promoting region-wide stability.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceFragility & Resilience

Ukraine’s Plea: Security Pledges Are the Path to Lasting Peace

Ukraine’s Plea: Security Pledges Are the Path to Lasting Peace

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined to the Ukrainian parliament last week, for the first time in a public address, his victory plan to end the war. The plan, a roadmap on how to bring to the conflict to a close, contains five sections and three classified annexes that cover everything from meeting military requirements today to rebuilding the Ukrainian economy at the conclusion of the war. Zelenskyy has attempted to gather resources for the war and rally allies around a common goal. He spent the past two weeks on the road, briefing senior U.S. leaders, including both presidential candidates, Europeans and NATO’s secretary-general on what he sees as vital to ending Russia’s war on his country in an enduring way: NATO membership.

Type: Analysis

Global PolicyPeace Processes

China Responds to Taiwan’s Plea for Cross-Strait Peace with Military Pressure

China Responds to Taiwan’s Plea for Cross-Strait Peace with Military Pressure

Thursday, October 24, 2024

In his first National Day speech as Taiwan’s president, William Lai Ching-te called for regional peace while reaffirming that China and Taiwan “are not subordinate to each other.” Though Lai’s October 10 address was more restrained than past remarks, it was attacked by China’s state media as “highly provocative.” Days later, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) encircled Taiwan with record numbers of military aircraft and warships during a series of military “drills.”

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention